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Effects of the agreements upon proliferation.
Agreements to agree

Accomplishments of the agreements for cooperation.
Changing times and goals

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The situation 20 years ago

The situation today.

The situation 20 years hence.

Future expectations of agreements for cooperation.

List of Tables

I. Criteria for decisions affecting nuclear exports II. List of agreement nations and their NPT status III. Comparison of contents of three typical

agreements for cooperation

IV. Contents of research and power agreements
V. Contents of research agreements...
VI. Potential effects of agreement provisions on
proliferation of nuclear weapons.

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VII. Provisions of agreements for cooperation that require additional negotiations and decisions

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II. Comparative texts of provisions for agreements for research and power,

research only, and power only

III. A selected chronology of international activities of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, 1955-1974

IV. Principles of EURATOM safeguards

I. SUMMARY OF OBSERVATIONS AND ISSUES

Summary of Factors Affecting Agreements for Cooperation

At the request of the Senate Committee on Government Operations, the authors examined U.S. agreements for nuclear cooperation in relation to (1) proliferation of the ability to make nuclear weapons, and (2) to legislation before the Committee to reorganize certain export functions of the Federal Government. * This examination has produced a commentary on factors that Congress may wish to keep in mind while considering the pending legislation and an identification of 14 related issues which appear to merit consideration.

The report identifies five overall factors relevant to negotiation and administration of the agreements for cooperation:

1. The agreements for cooperation and export licenses have fostered the substantial export of U.S. nuclear materials, equipment and technology since 1955 which have stimulated and strengthened the growth of nuclear energy industries abroad. This industrial growth probably would have occurred without U.S. nuclear cooperation, but at a slower pace. Nonetheless, the stronger and more diversified is the nuclear industrial base of a nation, the more readily it may, at its option, produce nuclear explosive materials and develop nuclear weapons.

2. The United States through the agreements for cooperation has

obtained

unprecedented modification of national sovereignty through

* S. 1439, the Export Reorganization Act of 1976.

commitments of agreement nations to safeguard U. S. -supplied nuclear materials and equipment and to permit inspection by inspectors of the United States or the International Atomic Energy Agency. Provisions in the agreements which require application of international safeguards in agreement nations gave the International Agency practical working experience that was important preparation for its responsibilities under the Non Proliferation Treaty.

3. The formulation of the functions, negotiation and administration of agreements for cooperation and export licenses was dominated by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission for the period 1955-1974 and the pattern it established has changed little since the Energy Reorganization Act was passed in 1974.

4. Times and circumstances have changed markedly since U.S. muclear cooperation began in 1955. Concern about proliferation was then fo

cused on the vertical proliferation of U. S. competition with the Soviet Union in production of nuclear weapons. Now concern has been extended to include horizontal proliferation of the ability to make nuclear weapons among many nations. In 1955 there was little thought of a chronic world shortage of oil and natural gas, although there should have been, so that use of nuclear power depended upon its economic competitiveness with cheap and plentiful fossil fuels. Now many nations are turning to nuclear power, rightly or wrongly, to relieve their dependence upon imported, high-priced oil from possibly unreliable suppliers. In 1955 one Federal agency, the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, dominated U.S. nuclear cooperation with

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