Industrial nickel research in the United States is directed almost entirely towards physical metallurgy, developing new nickel alloys and new uses for nickel. INCO conducts a significant part of its nickel product research in the United States. Research on the corrosion resistance of nickel alloys in hot seawater is done at the INCO Harbor Island Corrosion Laboratory in North Carolina. The work is oriented towards desalination of seawater.

Most research on the extractive metallurgy of nickel is conducted in Canada. INCO, Falconbridge, and Sherritt Gordon engage in research on all phases of beneficiating, smelting, and refining nickel ores. In pilot plant operations these companies investigate extractive metallurgical processing methods for specific ores from all parts of the world. INCO also operates product

research laboratories at Birmingham, England, and process research laboratories at Clydach, Wales. Falconbridge Nickel Mines Ltd. operates a process research laboratory in Kristiansand, Norway.

Canadian nickel companies are more active in nickel research than other concerns, but the steel companies in the United States alone probably expend more on researching nickel-bearing alloys. Steel companies in Japan and the Economic Community countries are equally active in researching nickel-bearing alloys.

SUPPLY-DEMAND RELATIONSHIPS

Components of Supply

The flowchart (fig. 1) shows the nickel supplydemand relationship in 1973 and indicates the

principal nickel-producing countries of the world. U.S. mine production is expected to continue at a rate of about 15,000 short tons per year through 1980. Domestic copper refineries recover about 1,000 short tons of nickel annually from refining primary copper, and 1,500 short tons is recovered by refineries that process secondary with primary metal.

The pattern of world nickel production began to change in 1973 and is expected to change markedly within 5 years as Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic produce a larger share of the total.

Practically all the nickel produced in the market economies is consumed in the industrial countries: Canada and the United States in the Western Hemisphere; the Economic Community countries, Sweden, and Norway in Europe; and Japan in the Far East. Relatively small quantities of nickel are consumed in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, the Republic of South Africa, and India. The U.S.S.R. is the principal consumer among the centrally planned economies, followed by Poland and Czechoslovakia. Nickel consumption in the People's Republic of China

is unknown.

The United States obtains most of its nickel

from Canadian sources, some of it by way of extraction plants in Norway and the United Kingdom. Recently ferronickel has been imported from New Caledonia and the Dominican Republic. The quantity of ferronickel from these countries is expected to increase because the U.S. consumers have been using proportionally more ferronickel. Japan obtains most of its nickel in ore from New Caledonia and Indonesia and from scrap originating in the United States. Western Europe obtains nickel from Canada, New Caledonia, and the Republic of South Africa, and some Cuban nickel also is reaching markets in Western Europe. East Europe, the U.S.S.R., and the People's Republic of China obtain nickel from Cuba, but apparently do not buy nickel directly from other producers. The U.S.S.R. has sold nickel to consumers in Western Europe and the United States in recent years.

Secondary Sources

Scrap is a significant source of nickel supply. Nickel scrap is made in forming and shaping operations in primary processing plants, equivalent to the material described as home scrap in

FIGURE 2. Nickel Scrap Flow

steel mills. Nickel scrap is made in fabricating plants that use nickel-bearing materials, as is prompt industrial ferroscrap. Nickel scrap is generated when consumer goods made from nickel-bearing materials become obsolete, as is iron and steel obsolete scrap.

Approximately a third of the nickel scrap consumed follows the normal pattern of primary Consumption after passing through scrap collectors, brokers, smelters, refiners, and foundries (fig. 2). The exception is Monel metal scrap, which has unique use in steel mills producing specialty copper-nickel, corrosion-resistant, highstrength steels. On the other hand stainless steel, high-strength steel, and superalloy scraps are consumed in plants producing these materials. Almost invariably stainless steel scrap is used to make stainless steel, nickel-bearing alloy scrap is used to make nickel-bearing alloys, and nickelbase superalloy scrap is used to make superalloys. It is significant that nickel consumption can be correlated with stainless steel production only by taking into account the large quantity of runaround stainless steel scrap in the steel mills. Nickel home scrap is generated in integrated

steel mills, in nonferrous smelter and refining plants, and in foundries. It does not normally reach an outside market. Nickel prompt industrial scrap is sold directly to steel mills, smelters, and refiners by manufacturing companies, or it is sold to these concerns through scrap brokers. Essentially, all nickel scrap obtained from obsolete equipment is returned through scrap brokers to the steel mills, smelters, refineries, and foundries. Normally, brokers sell stainless and alloy steel to integrated steel mills and other nickel-bearing scrap to nonferrous smelters and refiners. However, in an active market, brokers may sell segregated nickel scrap directly to foundries.

The quantity of scrap metal generated in making many nickel alloys is unusually high, compared with that generated in making steel and nonferrous alloys of copper, lead, zinc, and silver. In making and working with stainless and alloy steels, yields average less than 60 percent; in making and working high-nickel alloys, yield is often as low as 20 percent. Inhouse loss in recycling high-nickel alloy is significant but not critical, but once the nickel-bearing material leaves the primary plant, scrap loss is 30 percent or more. The refractory nature of most highnickel alloys makes processing them to yield separate elements both technically difficult and expensive. In the United States, high-nickel alloy scrap normally is not utilized unless its composítion is known within close limits so that it can be reused as is. Otherwise, it is exported to Japan or the Federal Republic of Germany where it is processed to separate the contained elements in a form suitable for reuse.

Substitutes

Alternate materials are available to take the place of nickel in essentially all its uses. However, with few exceptions, alternate materials would require increased cost or some sacrifice in the physical or chemical characteristics and hence would affect the economy or performance of the product.

Stainless steels containing chromium, manganese, and relatively little nickel can be used in place of the conventional 300 series steels for some applications. Columbium, molybdenum, chromium, and vanadium can replace nickel in some of the steel alloys, and cobalt, chromium, and columbium-base alloys can be used in place of some of the nickel and superalloys. Manganese, molybdenum, and copper can be used in place of nickel in some types of iron castings, and the modified stainless steels described above also can be used in some cast forms. Platinum,

cobalt, and copper can replace nickel in some types of catalysts.

The biggest field for substituting other materials for nickel is where nickel-bearing material is used for its corrosion resistance, high strength, or special magnetic and electronic properties. For example, carbon steel clad with titanium could perform satisfactorily in many applications now filled by stainless steels and high-nickel alloys. Many plastics have equal or superior Corrosion resistance compared with the nickelbearing corrosion-resistant materials. Plastic coatings on high-strength steels or other material are comparatively inexpensive. Paint, enamel, or other attractive metallic or nonmetallic finishes and aluminum can be used in place of nickelchromium used in trim. Several combinations of metals and nonmetals are acceptable for use in storage batteries which can take the place of the nickel-iron and nickel-cadmium combinations. Some of these nickel substitutions were commonplace in 1967-69, while nickel was in short supply, but were not always completely satisfactory.

BYPRODUCTS AND COPRODUCTS

Nickel is produced in the United States as a coproduct of copper and platinum metals at plants refining these elements. In 1974, 6 percent of the nickel produced domestically was a coproduct (table 4), and undoubtedly nickel will continue to be produced at these refineries. The quantity cannot be foreseen because there is no fixed relationship between the quantities of copper and other metals processed and the quantity of nickel obtained.

Most nickel sufides are associated with copper and iron sulfides, and many of the sulfide deposits contain cobalt, silver, gold, platinum, palladium, iridium, osmium, rhodium, ruthenium, selenium, and tellurium. There is no definite relationship between the metals, and it is practically impossible to cite definite ratios of one metal content to another without also citing innumerable exceptions. The laterite mine operators that process the ore to ferronickel produce only iron as a coproduct. However, in the plants where the laterite ores are processed chemically,

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cobalt is obtained as a byproduct, but the iron and chromium contained in the ores are not recovered. Sherritt Gordon, with its hydrometallurgical refining process, produces ammonium sulfate and urea (fertilizer raw materials) from the solvent reagents used in refining nickel.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

Nickel is among the group of metals whose use in times of war increases at a much faster rate than the growth of the overall economy. Although most of the U.S. nickel supply comes overland from Canada, that shipped through Great Britain and Norway and that coming from other countries would be subject to all the hazards of wartime ocean travel. Nickel from Great Britain and Norway originates in Canada and could probably be processed in Canada or in the United States in an emergency.

Domestic production of primary nickel accounts for less than 10 percent of the Nation's peactime demand. Scrap accounts for 20 to 30 percent of the total demand, while the remaining 60 to 70 percent of U.S. demand must be met from imports.

The U.S. Government stockpiled various forms of nickel when it began accumulating strategic materials after World War II. The nickel strategic stockpile objective was reduced from 55,000 tons to zero in February 1971, and the President signed legislation on July 26, 1972, that authorized disposal of all nickel held in the national stockpile. The nickel was subsequently held by the General Services Administration for coinage by the U.S. Mint.

To assure a sufficient supply of nickel for defense needs, the Business and Defense Services Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, issued a directive dated July 28, 1966, ordering the three principal U.S. suppliers-The International Nickel Co., Inc., The Hanna Mining Co., and Kaiser-Le Nickel Co.-to set aside 25 percent of their average monthly shipments, based on those made in the first half of 1966, for defense-related orders. The set aside was effective beginning August 1, 1966. The set aside program has continued in effect since its inception. Set asides for 1975 were issued in a directive dated March 14, 1975, and became effective on April 1, 1975. This set aside was at a rate of 10 percent and was placed on five companies-AMAX Inc., The Hanna Mining Co., The International Nickel Co., Inc., Western Mining Corp., and N C Trading Co.-and was based on the average monthly shipments for the period January through December 1974 except for AMAX. AMAX's base period was to be the

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OPERATING FACTORS AND PROBLEMS

As the cost of energy increases, its effect on the price of nickel will become more pronounced. Some idea of nickel's sensitivity to energy requirements can be gained from the following data. Sulfide smelters using electric furnaces consume 387 kilowatt-hours per ton of concentrate, according to a 1969 Bureau of Mines estimate. The Bureau also estimated that oxide smelters used 29 kilowatt-hours per pound of nickel and that calcining requires 132 gallons of fuel oil per ton.

The U.S. primary nickel industry employs about 70 men at the mine and 250 men at the smelter.

Nickel sulfide concentrating plants recover 90 to 95 percent of the contained minerals. Smelter recovery is estimated at 95 percent of the contained metal. Plants that process laterites to recover nickel in ferronickel recover 60 to 90 percent of the metal contained in the ore. The Hanna plant at Riddle, Oreg., has increased recovery from 80 to 87 percent in the last decade. Nickel laterite surface mining operations disturb the countryside and normally cover a large area. The mine at Riddle, Oreg., is in a remote area, and the surface disturbances required by mining are expected to heal with time.

The only really serious pollution caused by mining and processing nickel sulfides stems from the sulfur dioxide that is relased to the atmosphere in smelting sulfide ores. Modern plants recover a large part of the sulfur and use it to produce sulfuric acid.

A report prepared by the committee on Medical and Biologic Effects of Environmental Pollutants, Division of Medical Sciences, National Research Council was published on nickel in 1975. The report's summary states that man is exposed to small concentrations of nickel in the water and food he ingests, but with no apparent ill effects. However, it is noted that nickel carbonyl is extremely toxic. Epidemiologic studies of workmen in nickel smelters and refineries have shown an increased incidence of cancers of the lungs and nasal cavities. It is further stated that the technology of smelting and refining has changed and in all probability the risk of respiratory carcinogenesis has diminished.

Demand

OUTLOOK

Domestic demand for nickel in 2000 is forecast to fall between 420,000 and 640,000 tons. Within this range the expected level of demand in 2000 is 550,000 tons, representing an annual growth rate of 2.8 percent between 1973 and 2000. This forecast was based on multiple contingency analysis of probable technological, social, and economic changes and their probable effects on nickel demand during the forecast period. The domestic demand for primary nickel is expected to be 300,000 to 450,000 tons in the year 2000. The most probable growth rate for primary, calculated from the 1973 value, was judged to be 2.6 percent, representing 385,000 tons. Demand for secondary was expected to be 120,000 to 190,000 tons with the most probable growth rate estimated at 3.5 percent, representing 165,000 tons.