United States:

Nickel demand in the rest of the world probably will increase at approximately the same rate as in the United States, and annual growth rates of 1.8 percent and 3.1 percent during 1973-2000 accordingly will require from 1.19 million to 1.71 million tons in the year 2000. The developed countries, including those in Europe and Japan, use nickel for essentially the same purposes as does the United States. These uses are likely to grow at rates equal to the U.S. rates, and by the year 2000 will still account for most of the rest-of-the-world consumption.

To establish a forecast base for domestic nickel demand in the year 2000, selected economic indicators were applied to 1973 consumption data. Once the forecast base for 2000 was obtained, contingency assumptions which would significantly increase or decrease the forecast base were considered. The following are analyses of the contingency assumptions made for nickel demand in each of the major end uses during 1973-2000 and the calculations of the forecast range of demand in the year 2000.

Chemical Manufacturing.-Demand for nickel in plants used to make chemical products correlated with the 4.25-percent growth indicated by the Federal Reserve Board Index gives a forecast base of 120,000 tons. Plastics, titanium cladding, or ceramic castings could replace nickel-bearing alloys in providing corrosion resistance in some chemical plants, and moderate growth could reduce the demand for nickel to 87,000 tons per year by 2000. On the other hand, expanded use of nickel in corrosive environments, construction of large-scale desalinization plants, and exploitation of the ocean as a source of food and raw material could increase

the demand to 120,000 tons. The most probable demand of 110,000 tons favors the high of the range because of the growing need for materials that will stand up in corrosive environments.

Petroleum.-Demand for nickel by the petroleum industry related with the 4.25-percent growth indicated by the Federal Reserve Board Index gives a forecast base of 72,000 tons. Plastic, titanium cladding, and ceramics could replace the nickel-bearing alloys in some petroleum plants to reduce the demand to 53,000 tons per year by 2000. On the other hand development of an oil-shale-based industry could increase the demand to 73,000 tons. The most probable demand of 70,000 tons favors the high

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of the range because of the growing need for corrosion-resistant pollution control equipment and the increasing need for equipment in the expanding petroleum industry.

Fabricated metal products. Correlating demand for nickel in fabricated metal products to the 1.6-percent growth forecast for steel to 2000 gives a forecast base of 40,000 tons. The low forecast demand is 35,000 tons, assuming that past substitution trends continue. However, higher living standards may require more metal products of superior quality and thus raise the demand to 50,000 tons. Feasible ways to replace nickel in stainless steel exist and lead to the estimate of 46,000 tons as a probable level.

Transportation-Aircraft and Parts.-The demand for nickel in aircraft was related to the Federal Reserve Board Index of Industrial Production to obtain a forecast base of 51,000 tons by 2000. Substitution of cobalt, columbium, or other elements for nickel in superalloys could reduce nickel demand to 45,000 tons. But if nickel's use in superalloys is unchanged and maraging steels are used in airframes, the demand in 2000 could be 65,000 tons. The most probable demand for nickel in aircraft and parts by 2000 is 45,000 tons, the low of the range, because cobalt-base alloys and ceramic coatings will probably be used in place of nickel to achieve higher operating temperatures and thus greater efficiencies in aircraft powerplants.

Motor Vehicles and Equipment. Correlating demand for nickel in motor vehicles with the growth in total population gives a forecast base of 35,000 tons in 2000. If most stainless steel in motor vehicles is replaced by aluminum or titanium, the low of the forecast range would be 28,000 tons. If stainless steel usage is unchanged and electroplating is more widely used, the high of the forecast would be 47,000 tons. The most probable demand is forecast at 33,000 tons, near the low of the range, assuming that pollution and crowding in our cities will restrict the use of automobiles there and that the trend toward smaller, more economical automobiles continues. Ship and Boat Building and Repairs.-Nickel demand in ship and boat building and repairs has been forecast to increase with total population, giving a forecast base of 10,000 tons. If foreign shipyards maintain the present_cost advantage over domestic yards, the low of the forecast range is 8,000 tons. Assuming that the growth rate of ship building will exceed the growth in population and reflect continued prosperity, the high demand is 15,000 tons by 2000. The most probable forecast approaches the high and is 14,000 tons because foreign shipyards are not expected to obtain a larger

share of domestic ship and boat building at this time.

Electrical-Correlating demand for nickel in electrical equipment with the gross private domestic investment (GPDI) index gives a forecast base of 101,000 tons by 2000. The relatively high price of nickel may result in large-scale substitution for nickel in resistance alloys, whereby usage would be 60,000 tons. However, increasing sophistication of power generating and distribution equipment would increase usage to 110,000 tons annually by 2000. The forecast of most probable demand of 100,000 tons in 2000 is set above the median of the range because it is anticipated that more nickel will be used in power generating and distribution equipment.

Household Appliances.-Demand for nickel in household appliances related to the forecast growth of total population gives a forecast base of 22,000 tons in 2000. Substitution of other metals for nickel in utensils and encasements could reduce this to 20,000 tons. On the other hand, technical advances in finishing welds and reduced finishing costs probably would increase the demand to 25,000 tons. Per capita use of nickel apparently stabilized in the 1950's and is not expected to change, so the most probable forecast is set at about the level of the forecast base, or 22,000 tons.

Machinery.-Projecting nickel demand for use in machinery to parallel the forecast for steel gives a forecast base of 28,000 tons in 2000. Larger, more sophisticated machines in the future will undoubtedly be built of nickelbearing, high-strength, low-alloy steels, and assuming continuation of recent upward trends in usage, the low becomes 33,000 tons. Allowing for increased mechanization brings the high to 40,000 tons. The probable demand for nickel for use in machinery in 2000 is forecast at 36,000 tons, which is near the median of the range, because increasing size is expected to offset the trend towards more sophisticated machines.

Construction.-Demand for nickel by general building contractors is projected to parallel the growth forecast for total population and gives a forecast base of 29,000 tons for 2000. Considering the increasing use of stainless steel for siding and nickel-bearing alloys for construction, the low is set close to the forecast base of 29,000 tons. Moreover, in view of the likelihood of widespread use of nickel-bearing, high-strength steel, the high of the range is 60,000 tons. Probable demand is set at about the median of the range, or 40,000 tons,

because little change is expected in the use of nickel in low-alloy, high-strength steels.

Other-Nickel demand for the other end uses is forecast to grow with the total population, giving a forecast base of 29,000 tons in 2000. There is presently no indication that the pattern of nickel usage in catalysts, carbides, hard-facing materials, ceramics, dies, glass, lubricants, plastics, or rubber will change substantially, so the low of the range is 26,000 tons. The high is 35,000 tons, assuming some increase in the use of nickel-iron alkali or nickel-cadmium batteries. The probable demand for nickel's use in the other category is placed near the high of the forecast range, considering the high level of nickel activity in applied research laboratories, which probably will result in development of

new uses.

Supply

Domestically produced nickel will be only a small part of the total supply, and it is not anticipated that nickel mining and processing operations in the United States will incur unusual environmental and social costs.

Smaller nickel operations in foreign countries will be phased out, and new ones will be started. However, except for temporary dislocation and the normal difficulties and costs of establishing new mining districts, unusual environmental and social costs are not expected in connection with supplying all the nickel needed to meet the forecast demand.

Reserve figures developed by the Bureau of Mines for the nickeliferous laterite deposits being exploited by the Hanna Mining Co. indicate that at the present rate of production the reserves could be exhausted in about 10 to 15 years. Exhaustion of the higher grade lateritic material is expected in 5 to 8 years. However, Hanna company spokesmen indicate that Hanna has developed lower grade reserves which will substantially extend the life of the operation. Amax Nickel Division's renovated plant in Louisiana will produce 80 million pounds of nickel per year from imported feed material.

Possible Supply-Demand Changes

Domestic mine production of nickel was 13,900 tons in 1973 and 14,100 tons in 1974. Total U.S. demand for primary nickel was 192,500 tons in 1973 and about 193.600 tons in 1974. Therefore, domestic production during 1973 and 1974 supplied about 7 percent of the total U.S. demand for primary nickel.

The total U.S. demand for primary nickel in

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2000 is projected at 385,000 tons. If the present percentage met from domestic sources prevails at that ume, U.S. primary nickel production in 2000 would be 27,700 tons.

For speculative purposes this sum may be compared to domestic primary production in 2000, as derived from a projection of historical production records. A straight-line projection of domestic production during the past 20 years, as shown in table 8, would point to primary nickel production in 2000 of about 32,000 tons.

Cumulative domestic requirements for primary nickel during 1973-2000 will be 7.6 million tons. Maintenance of the constant ratio rate of domestic primary production to requirements would require a total output between 1973 and 2000 of 548,000 tons. The potential supply of nickel from domestic sources is estimated to be 200,000 tons. Hence, marked improvement over current technology for winning nickel from lowgrade ores will be required if the United States is to maintain a constant ratio level of production of primary nickel from indigenous ores. Improvements in current mining and extraction technology could result in production of nickel from the Duluth gabbro and laterite resources in Oregon and California. Possible development of these two resources would permit future domestic primary production at the levels estimated in table 8.

The cumulative demand for primary nickel in the rest of the world, based on the probable

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demand growth of 2.6 percent per year, is 23.6 million tons, bringing the probable world cumulative demand for primary nickel throughout the forecast period to 31.2 million tons. The world's nickel supply of 50 million tons available at the 1973 price level, coupled with the high probability of additional discoveries of workable laterite deposits, indicates that the supply of primary nickel during the forecast period is entirely adequate to meet the high forecast range of U.S. and world demand.

Possible Technological Progress

Mining and beneficiation techniques for sulfide nickel ores are well developed. However, refinements will be made in existing techniques, new ones will be developed, and larger, more efficient equipment will be designed. Expanded mining of laterites should result in development of more sophisticated control techniques in mining and blending, prior to processing.

Iron and steel smelting methods in all probability will be applied in smelting nickel ores and concentrates. Modified blast furnaces and large electrical smelting furnaces similar to those used in the iron and direct iron industries may be applied. The top blown rotary converter as developed and researched by INCO undoubtedly will be applied to nickel by others, growing in essentially the same way as use of the basic oxygen converters has grown in the steel industry.

The pressure carbonyl process almost certainly will be applied to recover iron, cobalt, and other associated metals more economically with higher recoveries.

The extractive and refining processes described above will be applied to treat all types of nickel-bearing scrap. Hydro and vapor metallurgical processes may be refined and combined to extract nickel from the laterites more effidently. These processes probably will be used to obtain iron and chromium coproducts profitably from laterite ores. Increased temperatures and pressure probably will be used to improve recovery and efficiency in processing laterites.

Nodule mining could become operational by 1985. In 1975 five principal nodule miningprocessing programs were being studied and developed. Metallurgical recovery of metals from nodules was in an advanced state of development in 1975. Mining the nodules encompasses

three main functions: nodule recovery from the ocean floor, hoisting, and storage in a surface ship. Numerous approaches were being tested in 1974 and 1975. The success of mining ocean nodules is dependent on the development of a reliable recovery system capable of hoisting 1 to 3 million tons (dry weight basis) of nodules per year.

New nickel-bearing alloys will be developed at a rate even higher than in the past to cut costs and obtain better performance in numerous applications.

Technologic changes will evolve from the need to avoid polluting the atmosphere and water and to avoid other detrimental effects on the environment. Specifically this need will force obsolescence of reverberatory smelting and sideblown converter furnaces. It will also stimulate research in pressure leaching operations wherein the entire process is under complete control so the effluvia are not problems.

REFERENCES

1. American Iron and Steel Institute. Annual Statistical Reports.

2. Boldt, J. R., Jr. The Winning of Nickel. D. Van Nostrand Co., Inc., New York, 1967, 487 pp.

3. Cornwall, H. R. Nickel. Ch. in United States Mineral Resources. U.S. Geol. Survey Prof. Paper 820, 1973, pp. 437-442.

4. Landsberg, H. H., L. L. Fischman, and J. L. Fisher. Resources in America's Future. The Johns Hopkins Press, Balumore, Md., 1963, 1017 pp.

5. Mackenzie, B. W. Nickel-Canada and the World. Mineral Resources Division, Department of Energy. Mines and Resources, Ottawa, Canada, 1968, 176 PP.

6. U.S. Steel Corp. (Pittsburgh, Pa.). Making, Shaping, and Treating of Steel. 9th Ed., 1971, 1420 pp.

7. White-Howard, F. B. Nickel-A Historical Review. D. Van Nostrand Co., Inc., New York, 1963, 350 pp. SOURCES OF CURRENT INFORMATION