tive. The export controls which are subject to the limitations provided in S. 2579 should be used only when there is clear evidence that supplies are or will be so short that serious problems of distribution will result at home and abroad if exports are not controlled. This is exactly the position we have taken with respect to the 1951 cotton crop. Even though our carry-out stocks at the end of the marketing year are expected to be the lowest in history, we have not taken action to control exports of such commodity. Export controls should be put into effect whenever such action is clearly necessary to assure the retention at home of supplies needed for military and civilian use, and to channel short supplies to particular foreign countries. It determining the need for export controls, many other factors must be considered in addition to the production level. Among these considerations are the level of reserve stocks, the possibility of higher demands at home as a result of the mobilization program, the needs of the expanded Armed Forces, and the requirements of friendly foreign countries. Therefore, it does not appear that it would be practicable to limit the use of export control authority by the executive branch by the percentage relationship between actual production and production goals. Also it should be remembered that production goals must be established and announced 3 to 6 months before planting time to be of maximum benefit to farmers in planning their production. This means that the goals are based on our best evaluation of requirements for a 15- to 18-month forward period. During this period a crop failure might occur in another exporting country thereby increasing demands upon United States production, or requirements at home might increase substantially. We have had experiences where, because of unforeseen increases in requirements of friendly foreign countries, we have had to consider the need for export controls even though actual production was equal to or exceeded the goal. In such a situation, if we were not permitted to impose export controls, we could very easily find ourselves in the untenable position of allowing unrestricted foreign shipments that would create shortages at home. Another factor that should be taken into account is that we do not have production goals for all agricultural commodities. There are no goals for livestock products or fats and oils. This would appear to mean that under the proposed legislation the 85-percent limitation would not apply to such commodities. It should be noted that insofar as edible fats and oils are concerned, supplies. are ample and there is no need for export controls at this time. I think that the difficulty of applying the percentage formula outlined in S. 2579 can best be illustrated by discussing its use in terms of cotton production in 1951 and corn production in 1952. If the 85 percent limitation were applied to the 1951 cotton crop, it would mean that export controls over such commodity could not be imposed during the 1951-52 marketing year even though domestic production were as low as 13.6 million bales (85 percent of the production goal of 16 million bales). With domestic production of 13.6 million bales, plus a carry-in stock of 2.3 million bales and imports of 0.2 million bales, total supply for the marketing year 1951-52 would be 16.1 million bales. We estimate domestic consumption this year at 9.5 million bales and exports at 6 million bales, or a total of 15.5 million bales. Under these conditions, stocks would be reduced theoretically to 600,000 bales at the end of this year. However, long before we reached this level, serious distribution problems would deveolp. If export controls could not be utilized, it would be necessary to impose domestic allocation controls. It is generally recognized that stocks cannot be reduced much below 2 million bales without causing domestic distribution problems. In the case of corn, the production goal for 1952 is 3,375 million bushels. Under the proposed legislation, export controls could not be imposed in 1952-53 if production reached 2.9 billion bushels. Since we estimate that corn reserves at the end of this marketing year will be reduced to about 425 million bushels, and since total requirements for corn in 1952-53 are estimated at approximately 3.3 billion bushels, the proposed legislation would prohibit the use of export controls even though we would be faced with a serious domestic feed grain shortage. A crop as low as 2.9 billion bushels would force farmers to make major adjustments in their livestock production plans. For the foregoing reasons, we recommend that S. 2579 not be enacted. The Bureau of the Budget advises that, from the standpoint of the program of the President, there is no objection to the submission of this report. Sincerely yours, CHARLES F. BRANNAN, Secretary. Andresen August H., a Representative in Congress from the State of Minnesota 1405 Arnall Ellis G., Director, Office of Price Stabilization, accompanied by 153, 1229 Bailey, Cleveland M., a Representative in Congress from the State of 1369 Behrens, M. I., National Retail Furniture Association_ 1024 913 391 Brockbank, Alan E., president, National Association of Home Builders 1121 546 340 604 Carpenter, Cliff D., president, Institute of American Poultry Indusdustries, accompanied by Tom Heitz, chairman, legislative committee; Marshall H. Spear, executive director, Long Island Duck Growers Marketing Cooperative; and Joseph Parker, counsel_---Castle, Benjamin F., executive director, Milk Industry Foundation, accompanied by C. B. Kellogg____. 1082 329 693 Coulter, Dr. John Lee, consultant economist, National Renderers Asso- 1213 323 Danzansky, Joseph B., general counsel, National Association of Meat 1201 Davis, Stanton W., Supermarket Institute__ 726 Downer, Adin M., assistant legislative representative, Veterans of 884 Downing, James C. president, National Used Car Dealers Association___ 916 Dratt, John J., National Association of Retail Grocers, accompanied by Tyre Taylor and Henry J. Bison, Jr....... 708 Dworshak, Henry C., a United States Senator from the State of 1420 Ferebee, Dr. Dorothy B., president, National Council of Negro 920 Fifer, Russell, executive secretary, American Butter Institute__ 292 Statement of-Continued Fleischmann, Manly, Administrator, Defense Production Administration, accompanied by Gabriel J. Ticoulat, Deputy Administrator for Defense Production Administration and United States Representative to IMC; Willard L. Thorp, Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs; and Benjamin Caplan, economic adviser, Economic Stabilization Administration_-_. Page 51, 1456 Finch, Harold, National-American Wholesale Grocers' Association___ Freed, Charles C., National Automobile Dealers Association_. 703 318 425 305 806 297 530, 565 1102 Fromer, Martin A., counsel, Cheese Importers Association of Ameri- Gaumnitz, E. W., executive secretary, National Cheese Institute. Grede, William J., president, National Association of Manufacturers, 835 Green, William, president American Federation of Labor, accompanied by Peter Henle, assistant economist, and Joseph D. Keenan, secretary, building trades department_-_. 630 Gunther, John J., legislative representative, Americans for Democratic 888 Hall, Radford S., assistant executive secretary, American National Cattlemen's Association___. Hayden, J. Francis, chairman, New York Building Congress, Inc__. 1364 231 355 Holman, Charles W., secretary, National Milk Producers Federation___ 265 506 995 1368 479 666 880 Knice, William, business representative, Sheet Metal Workers, New 1367 LaRoe, Wilbur, Jr., general counsel, National Independent Meat Packers Association__. 1165 Lavitt, Sol, National Potato Council and Vegetable Growers Association of America_. 798, 801 Liljenquist, I. Blaine, Western States Meat Packers Association, Inc__ 1172 Lodge, Henry Cabot, Jr., a United States Senator from the State of Massachusetts--- 1438 Magnuson, Warren G., a United States Senator from the State of 1111 Martin, William McC., Chairman, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, accompanied by R. M. Evans and Oliver S. Powell, members of the Board, and Ralph A. Young, Director, Division of Research and Statistics_ McKissick, Ellison S., American Cotton Manufacturers Institute, ac- Minnoch, John K., executive director, National Hide Association.......... Myers, Francis J., National Foundation for Consumer Credit.. 75 981 1221 874, 876 1045 1366 1061 Statement of-Continued Page Newsom, Herschel D., master, the National Grange. 376 1068 1181 248 Pickell, Mark W., executive secretary, Corn Belt Livestock Feeders 438 Pierce, C. W., and P. L. Haymes, representing Dairy Industry Committee_. 231 Putnan, Roger L., Administrator, Economic Stabilization Administration____ 109 Riggle, John J., assistant secretary, National Council of Farmer Cooperatives__ 466 Robbins, Paul H., National Society of Professional Engineers__ 525 399 561 699 582 Selby, Paul L., executive vice president, National Consumer Finance 473 Skidmore, Louis, president, New York Building Congress, Inc---- 1366 359 491 721 Terborgh, George, research director, Machinery and Allied Products Turner, Bertram, Cooperative Food Distributors of America_. Wiley, Alexander, a United States Senator from the State of Wis- Wilson, Charles E., Director, Office of Defense Mobilization, accompanied by Manly Fleischmann, Defense Production Administrator, and Rodolfo A. Correa, general counsel, Office of Defense Mobilization 1012 300 4, 1456 Wise, F. B., secretary-treasurer, National Renderers Association___ 1227 Wright, Mrs. C. D., chairman, legislation department, General Federation of Women's Clubs_. 570 Letters, memorandum, statements, etc., submitted for the record by American Association of University Women: Statement.. 1579 328 American Butter Institute: Comparison, hourly earnings, with retail price_ 296 American Chamber of Commerce for Trade With Italy, Inc., Federico 1581 American Cotton Manufacturers Institute: Statement__ 990 Value of exports and imports of dairy products, 1946-50, and Price trends 7 months before controls and year after controls_‒‒‒ Gross and net spendable weekly earnings, production workers, 664 |