« 이전계속 »
Members, $0.50; nonmembers, $1.00.
Discussion of problems, techniques, trends, and possibilities of incentive contracting, with application to specific aerospace projects. It is stated that it is difficult to draw conclusions about a new and, in a sense, exploding development such as the one treated. The work undertaken to date by the DOD, NA'SA, and segments of industry promises future benefits. More and more sizable incentive contracts, with greater profit/loss possibilities, are certain. And the planning and execution of these contracts will demand a growing percentage of management's attention. It is noted that lack of sufficient management attention to incentives will preclude successful incentive contracting and thwart the benefits potentially obtainable.
A67-15336 ANCILLARY BENEFITS OF AN AUTOMATED R&D RESOURCES ALLOCATION SYSTEM. Ambrose B. Nutt (USAF, Systems Command, Research and Technology Div., Flight Dynamics Laboratory, Wright - Patterson AFB, Ohio). American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Winter Annual Meeting and Energy Systems Exposition, New York, N. Y., Nov. 27-Dec. 1, 1966, Paper 66-WA/MGT-18. 9 p. Members, $0.75; nonmembers, $1.50.
The ancillary benefits derived from use of an automated R and D resources allocation system are described, prefaced by a brief description of the system itselí. The use of the system as an aid to management of a large Air Force R and D laboratory with a wide range of technical responsibilities is outlined. The several resultant benefits, exclusive of those related to resources allocation, are delineated and are shown to range from technical program data retrieval to vastly more knowledgeable planning at the task engineer level, These side benefits are concluded to be equally as useful to management as the basic system itself, which was designed originally only to be an aid to resources allocation.
Discussion of the Project Definition Phase (PDP) method of contracting, considered in a sense as an intensive value study conducted by all project activities. A significant aspect of PDP is the concept of system trade-offs among cost, performance, and schedules. A realistic and practical approach is to maximize capability for a specified cost or to minimize cost for a specified capability. The establishment of the PDP system is considered to have put value engineering into official government contracting policy. Various aspects of the problems involved are treated in detail.
Study of the management approach used by Avco Corporation, Electronics Division, to implement and manage its independent research effort. There, the independent research effort is defenseoriented and centers on communication and IR technologies. Factors discussed include experience, personnel, facilities, and available funding
Consideration of the changes in government contracting which took place in 1962 by enactment of Public Law 87-653, emphasizing the revised Certificate of Current Cost or Pricing Data. The effects which the new law will have on companies carrying R&D contracts are briefly discussed, including consequences in contract procurement and negotiations. The distinction made in PL 87-653 between "pricing data" and "cost data" is described. The procurements for which the Certificate of Current Cost or Pricing Data must be furnished are outlined.
Review of the current approach to selling research and development (R and D) and an attempt to relate it to the workings of related marketing areas. Some fundamental shortcomings of the current practice are pointed out, and a new approach is suggested to the problem. A new concept is introduced in the approach to marketing R and D capabilities to the defense/ space market which is based primarily on establishing capability managers as the focal point of the managing function. It is suggested that this is only one of the several new concepts that are needed to meet the challenges of marketing.
Description of a program (called RDE) for evaluating the effectiveness of research and development programs. The program, which uses analog computer methods, was developed at the Air Force Flight Dynamics Laboratory (AFFDL). The ways in which RDE is used at AFFDL to help determine the allocation of resources to various R&D projects is outlined.
R. A. F.
This procedure was tested in a research laboratory by having four decision makers evaluate a selected list of research projects. The resulting ranking of the projects was found to agree with an intuitive evaluation by the decision makers of the same list of projects. This gives an indication that the expected-value model may be useful in the complex area of research project selection.
Description of the Research and Development Effectiveness (RDE) computerized planning program, designed to utilize analytical techniques in the management of research and development resources in the Air Force Flight Dynamics Laboratory. The concept of a mission matrix, expressing the technical needs of the Air Force, is introduced, and the mathematical model of the RDE program is developed.
Presentation and test of a model designed to explain the research and development investment decision of firms. An attempt is made to explain the role of certain variables after is olating other variables that are not specified in the model. Estimates are made of the departure from the desired level of research and development expenditure and the coefficients of important variables that cause deviations from the level. The main variables discussed are profits, sales changes, expected sales changes, and expected capacity changes. The statistical method used to estimate the parameters of the variables is multiple regression analysis. On the basis of the analysis, several hypotheses are proposed and discussed in relation to alternative hypotheses.
Description of the SCOPE (irom Schedule, Cost, and Performance) computer-aided management system for the budget and schedule control of complex research and development programs. The system uses a computer to combine, assess, and summarize information from various organizational levels to provide data which account for the schedule, cost, and performance of all work units. The SCOPE output, in the form of reports, summaries and graphs, enables management to rapidly recognize cost, schedule, and organizational-interface problems. Project summaries are used to indicate where corrective action can be applied both by line supervision and program management.
Discussion of the meaning of the concepts of research, development, and test in terms of the activities of an industrial laboratory. The set of tasks which must be carried out regardless of the project served are considered. These tasks which support the laboratory activities are: technical assistance - engineering, activities concerning the equipment, technician assistance, maintenance, and activities concerning the facilities.
Analysis of the problems of managing an independent laboratory in terms of personnel, equipment, scheduling, and establishing of priorities, sales, and economic operation. The differences in operation between an independent laboratory and a government or company laboratory are discussed.
Results of a field test of a procedure for evaluating research projects. The procedure, based on what is termed an expectedvalue model, considers the following decision elements: (1) the environment of the problem, (2) the decision maker, (3) his objectives, and (4) his alternatives. The decision maker's alternatives, in this case a number of potential research projects, are evaluated in the light of his objectives. The result of the procedure is a ranking of potential projects in terms of their expected values.
Presentation of information concerning the current conduct of DOD research and engineering activities. Management of research in the defense establishment is studied. It is shown that management provides the broad environmental influences wherein scientific programs can take place and technical decisions can be made which culminate in major scientific breakthroughs. It is suggested that management should not restrict creative ideas in the initial stages of a program, but should provide wide latitude for research and experimentation. However, it is pointed out that this process of maintaining flexibility and a number of avenues cannot continue through the later processes of engineering and development. At these stages, objectives have to be clearly defined and parameters established; the decision-making process is then more clearly defined. The current problems of the DOD in performing its functions are reviewed, and the actual management of the Office of Defense Research and Engineering program is discussed in detail.
Conference sponsored by the Society of Automotive Engineers, the
Discussion of a Specification Tree - a pictorial presentation of the interrelationship of requirement documents, specifications, and standards applicable to a particular program. Its purpose as a management tool consists in (1) providing a basis for technical management of Hardware and Software control, (2) forming a part of the Program Work Package Structure for Earned Value administration and control, (3) serving as a ready-reference document for procuring agency and contractor personnel, and (4) portraying pictorially the effect of decisions on the configuration and data requirements for the Contract End Items. Diagrams of specification tree samples are included.
M4 MANAGEMENT TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Discussion of hybrid simulators, with description of a large unit which has been in operation for some time at Bolkow GmbH mainly for aerospace and military programs. It consists of analogcomputer units with a total of approximately 1200 operational amplifiers, two digital computers adapted to the special requirements of hybrid computation, and the interface units for handling the data flow between analog- and digital-computer elements. The necessity of such units for planning and accomplishing large-scale programs is shown. Examples are taken from the development of the third stage of the Europa I launch vehicle.
Description of an AGM-69A (an air-to-surface missile system) program-management system using a CRT display which translates PERT/Time and Cost Control data directly from computer storage into program-control displays. Thus the need for manual handling of the data and preparation of graphic illustrations is eliminated. This system has been given the acronyms COACH, for computeraided chartroom, and IMPACT, for instantaneous method for predicting, appraising, communicating, and tracking. A technical description of the system, the operation of the system, the application of the system to the AGM-69A program, and the lessons learned to date regarding the use of the system are given from a manager's point of view.
Discussion of the PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) planning method, the primary objective of which is to give project management a simple means for controlling the project with respect to time in order to accomplish a task with a known capacity in the shortest possible time. The project being planned is first described by a model, in order to ensure that at any moment the method supplies information on the state of the project and on the chances for future development and that it is always possible to determine the influences of possible decisions and of new events on the further progress of the project with the greatest possible accuracy. A PERT method is described in detail.
Review of existing resource-predicting techniques for making effective decisions in marketing and facility planning of future space programs in connection with a forthcoming tougher evaluation of future space programs by the Executive Branch and Congress in terms of priority shifts and low confidence in cost-forecasting preci
Selected techniques are compared and evaluated for Mariner C and Voyager with emphasis on proposed program-resource forecasting against expenditure estimates for a program underway. The impact of new technology not specifically reflected in these techniques, such as increasing complexity of experiments, long-life reliability, and sterilization, on the forecasting precision is discussed. V.Z.
Outline of the Critical Path Analysis system (CPA), a project control system based on network techniques which has been adopted by ELDO to coordinate the separate development programs of its imeniber States into an overall plan, This plan snoula (1) provide an effective overall planning method, a common progress-reporting routine, and a timely informed project management at all levels, and (2) be easy to introduce, compatible with systems used by individual Member States, and understandable at all levels of management.
Investigation of the management methods used in the development of an item of military equipment to be used with a range of aircraft. It is concluded that the relatively simple management methods selected as a basis for the experiments have proved themselves sufficiently useful to be employed with confidence on similar developments.
Discussion of system analysis as a management tool and of its application in aviation. Certain basic inputs are necessary in order to properly simulate aircraft operation. These inputs fall into three categories: system's characteristics, mission requirements, and maintenance and operational factors. The outputs discussed include mission success rates, downtime, availability, utilization rate, maintenance manhours, and space requirements.
Description of the quality evaluation review technique (QERT) which provides a manager with a tool for tacuitating program planning and scheduling. It makes use of a grap network which allows the manager to see quickly the status of the program. Ways of using this technique for quality improvement are discussed.
Examination of the general framework of business profitability and review of a number of the possibilities for practical cost reduction within the field of the aerospace industry. The business profitability model is described and cost effectiveness is studied. The U.S. Department of Defense cost reduction program is reviewed. Possible approaches to cost reduction are reviewed including program management and control, design and process cost studies, value analysis, competitive purchasing, operational research, the statistical de sign of experiments, operations auditing, natural productivity increa ses, investment analysis, and zero defects.
Summary of efforts to date in the application of an advanced feedback-system simulation technique as a strategic planning discipline. The results of an extensive parameter-sensitivity analysis are presented, and the utility of simulation is evaluated. M.F.
A funda me ntal study of the theory and application of mathematical simulation in man-made systems, this book begins with mathe matical abstraction, the establishment of simulation studies, and the deve lopment and use of mathematical models. It conta ins practical information on writing and testing equations and the collection and analysis of data for systems. After specific case studies in industrial systems, military operations, traffic and cargo problems, and in hydraulic applications, the book concludes with the supplementary use of analog media in scientific investigation.
This book gives an explanation of the basic features of the method of statistical trials (the Monte Carlo method) and considers typical examples of its application to simple problems in computational mathematics. A detailed study of the computation of multidimensional integrals is presented, a variety of examples of statistical modeling is analyzed, and the accuracy of the computations is investigated. The applications of the Monte Carlo method in those branches of physics and technology where it has been widely and successfully used are reviewed. The applications of the Monte Carlo method to the investigation of servicing processes are developed. This branch is concerned with the simulation of complex systems of control and operations research. Methods are considered for organizing statistical experiments on universal digital computers.
Description of a modular computer system designed to enable the engineer to easily communicate and interact with the computer. The programer uses the ICETRAN (ICES-FORTRAN) programing language to develop and modify the necessary components of the system. Dynamic memory allocation, alternate data structures and data transfer and management facilities are available to the programer. It is noted that these features combine to make ICES an integrated computer system for total civil engineering problem solving.
structed and then used to determine the important factors in a prof. COST EFFECTIVENESS.
itability model. The significant elements in the decision process G. R. Herd (Kaman Aircraft Corp., Bloomfield, Conn. ).
are found to be the uncertainty in esumating moder-paramete, values IN: ELECTRONIC INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION, CONFERENCE
and the optimal utilization of limited engineering-manpower resources ON SYSTEMS EFFECTIVENESS, IST, WASHINGTON, D.C.,
where this uncertainty exists.
(Author) A. B.K. OCTOBER 19, 20, 1965, PROCEEDINGS. (A66-23434 11-34] Washington, D.C., Electronic Industries Association, 1965, p. 78-85. The paper discusses cost effectiveness as an analytical tool for
A65-34072 # engineering and management. It identifies the tasks and inputs that
APPLICATION OF THE THEORY OF GRAPHS IN THE DESCRIPTION should be included in an analysis. Cost data are discussed as well
AND ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION-FLOW SCHEMES IN CONTROL as the risks and uncertainties involved in the costing. The cautions
SYSTEMS (O PRILOZHENII TEORII GRAFOV DLIA OPISANIIA I and limitations involved in interpreting and implementing the results
ANALIZA SKHEMY POTOKOV INFORMATSII V UPRAVLIAIUare presented along with the benefits of the approach. Simple exam
SHCHIKH SISTEMAKH). ples are used to illustrate the various ideas.
V. L. Epshtein.
Description and analysis of information-flow schemes in control A66-23060 #
systems, using contiguity matrices of information graphs. The VALUE ANALYSIS AS A WORKING TOOL.
properties of this matrix model are considered.
A.B.K. H. Davies (Thiokol Chemical Corp., Reaction Motors Div., Denville, N. J.). Chartered Mechanical Engineer, vol. 13, Feb. 1966, p. 60-64. 7 refs. A65-25176 Review of value analysis as a management technique that
ELEMENTS OF A STRATEGY FOR MAKING MODELS IN LINEAR results in cost reduction. The example discussed is the applica- PROGRAMMING. tion of the technique to the production of the Bullpup A and B
A. Charnes (Northwestern University. Evanston, Ill.) and W. W. missiles, both of which were already in service when the tech
Cooper (Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh, Pa.). nique was applied. It is shown that in the case of production
IN: SYSTEM ENGINEERING HANDBOOK. programs which are contracted out on a successive basis, value
Edited by R. E. Machol, W. P. Tanner, Jr., and S. N. Alexander. analysis provides an effective tool for improving competitive effi- New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1965, p. 26-1 to 26-30. 44 refs. ciency. The manner of organization of the value analysis technique A description of the techniques applicable to the construction of with respect to existing company structure and departments is
models in linear programing, with particular application to manageexplained. The importance of supplier participation is emphasized.
ment and social science. The need for distinguishing between a Two small components - a pintle (used as a flame holder and
problem and the way it might be modeled is stressed, as, for turbulence increasing device in the injector area of the combustion
example, in the search for intersections between the wanted solutions chamber) and a small plug · are cited as specific examples where
of a nonlinear problem and a linear model constructed to deal with the technique permitted significant cost reductions. A check on
it. Model equivalents that can be obtained by effecting various production records shows that value analysis reduces cost without transformations are discussed. These transformations, together causing any reduction in quality and reliability.
with the properties of a constrained optimization, can be used to obtain still further extensions - for example, when obtaining the
replacement of a compound objective with a simpler objective, in A66-21321
order to deal with a larger problem in engineering design. TechSIMULATION.
niques for characterizing the rank of a matrix, applying duality to A. W. Swan (Nova Scotia Technical College, Halifax, Nova Scotia,
linear programing, using constrained regressions for algorithmic Canada).
completion, and extending the simplex method to algorithmic The Engineer, vol. 221, Jan. 28, 1966, p. 170-172.
alterations are described.
D.P.F. Discussion of the relatively simple basic principles of simulation which can represent an extremely complex, managing policy. It is noted that a simulation imitates an industrial situation by converting
A65-25151 it into a mathematical model and that, whereas it is usually impos
THE ROLE OF LARGE-SCALE SIMULATION IN THE PROGRAM sible to experiment with an actual situation, to see for example the
DEFINITION PHASE ENVIRONMENT - AN EXAMPLE. effect on costs of varying production rates or the effect on stock
William J. Kenneally (U.S. Army, Electronics Command, Electronlevels of varying ordering policies, it is possible to experiment as ics Laboratories, Fort Monmouth, N.J.). one wishes with a mathematical model, once it has been proved to IEEE Transactions on Military Electronics, vol. MIL-9, Apr. 1965, be an accurate simulation, and arrive at an optimum policy. It is
p. 163-171. 33 refs. pointed out that one of the most remarkable examples of simulations
Discussion of the role of the government laboratory in the from industry concerned a textile mill in which the highly complex Program Definition Phase (PDP) environment. Emphasis is placed rules that governed the running of the mill, many of which had be- on the dual task of defining the technical boundaries of the problem, come buried in the subconscious minds of the heads of the departments, and evaluating the PDP reports to select the most acceptable engiwere converted to a mathematical simulation model which so im
neering approach. The problem of accomplishing a detailed technipressed the managers with its faithful reproduction of policy that cal evaluation of several proposed approaches in a short time frame they arranged to use it for the basis of their weekly planning meeting. is examined, with the result that a requirement for a better "yard
M. M. stick" is established. Design decisions leading to the final specifica
tion of such a yardstick - the Tactical Avionics System Simulator
HOW PERT WAS USED IN MANAGING THE X-20 (DYNA-SOAR) Burton V. Dean (Case Institute of Technology, Cleveland, Ohio)
PROGRAM. and Meir J. Nishry ( Boeing Co., Seattle, Wash. ).
Raymond M. Sadow (USAF, Systems Command, Aeronautical (The Institute of Management Sciences and Operations Research
Systems Div., DOD AIMS System Program Office, Program Society of America, National Meeting, Minneapolis, Minn. , Oct. Control Div., Wright - Patterson AFB, Ohio). 7-9, 1964, Paper.)
(USAF, Aeronautical Systems Division, Science and Engineering Operations Research, vol. 13, July-Aug. 1965, p. 550-569.
Symposium, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, 1963. ) Construction of mathematical models yielding solutions for al- IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, vol. EM-11, locating manpower resources to projects. A scoring model is con- Dec. 1964, p. 138-154.6 refs.