« 이전계속 »
Description of the method with which the program evaluation review technique (PERT) was developed in the X-20 program and of the manner in which it was used in managing that program. The X-20 System Program Office (SPO), Aeronautical Systems Division (ASD), organized and directed the overall X-20 PERT effort of both government and industry and employed a system of discrete detailed networks which collectively covered the entire program. The data from these reporting networks were computer-integrated into a total program PERT output. The problem of translating voluminous data into meaningful information for management and the development of effective PERT analyses, displays, and indicators are discussed. The operating concepts, atmosphere, and resources necessary for a successful PERT operation, the role of PERT in X-20 contractors' in-house management systems with actual examples, and its uses within the X-20 SPO are also described. Experience of the dynamics of a systems development program and the honest reporting resulting from the X-20 PERT system are presented as unique and advanced aspects of this new management technique. A review of resources required to operate PERT and a summary of the conclusions, contributions, and impact of original work performed in the Dyna-Soar SPO are included.
Description of the preparation of functional flow diagrams which can provide technical managers with (1) a rapid comprehensive way of evaluating all the alternatives and the consequences of their decisions on the rest of the system, and (2) a means of assuring that all the requirements are satisfied. The illustrations are typical for a Manned Orbiting Laboratory (MOL) Program. The standard functional flow diagrams, required by AFSCM 375-5 (System Engineering Management Procedures) and prepared for the Titan II and Titan III programs, are of limited value because they tend to lag the conceptual and design efforts. The derivation of the new functional flow diagram - which starts where the traditional type ends - is described in some detail, and illustrations are given.
A65-24154 # A MULTIPLE-OBJECTIVE CHANCE-CONSTRAINED APPROACH TO COST EFFECTIVENESS. A. Charnes (Teledyne, Inc.; Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill.), W. W. Cooper (Teledyne, Inc.; Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh, Pa.), G. Kozmetsky, and L. Steinman (Teledyne, Inc. ). IN: NATIONAL AEROSPACE ELECTRONICS CONFERENCE, DAYTON, OHIO, MAY 11-13, 1964, PROCEEDINGS. (A65-24101 13-09] Conference sponsored by the Professional Group on Aerospace and Navigational Electronics, Dayton Section of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, and American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Dayton, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Dayton Section, 1964, p. 454, 455.
Discussion of considerations involved in planning the construction and development of major industrial aerospace facilities. The field of aerospace testing is treated in order to illustrate the problems involved in planning facilities. The competitive situation for companies developing new facilities is reviewed, and guides for aiding the selection and evaluation of new equipment and facilities are discussed.
Discussion of major extensions to both PERT and CPM, and of the state of the art of the two similar systems, which are tools for scheduling the design and development work of engineering personnel. Both systems are considered equally good at the prime tasks of planning the logical order of assignments. A network diagram is presented for a prototype air-ground signal unit, demonstrating how PERT and CPM are used. Data are obtained from a computer. PERT-cost and its CPM equivalent, COP (Control of Profit), are defined and discussed. With CPM, expenditure rates can be forecast. An extension to CPM, the Resources Planning and Scheduling Method (RPSM), utilizes a computer to handle resources. Three fictitious line networks designed to optimize manpower on three projects, worked out by RPSM, are presented. A table comparing the various systems is given. It is considered that the extensions of CPM have broader capability than those of PERT.
Discussion of a methodology useful to planning and measuring (testing) progress toward the maturity of equipment, including sample visualizations useful to the program manager.
The technique discussed provides a thorough assessment of a test program and enables gaps, omissions, or duplications to be easily visualized by a matrix-type approach. It highlights areas of criticality for management and enables resources to be allocated realistically for optimizing demonstrations by test. It also provides a measure of the risk associated with each test (thereby enabling replanning to spread the risk more evenly over a series of tests) and permits management to visualize the contribution of ground and flight tests to that risk. From the assessment described, it appears that other measures of value can be applied to each test as well as the measure of technical value. Modified approaches might include other influences, such as the cost per test, to obtain other parameters for measuring progress toward maturity.
Development of practical guides for the application of the network technique to aircraft design and development. Particular attention is given to a technique of devising networks for the entire working process and extending it to a network system by introducing an arbitrary number of individual networks. A technique for determining individual time plans from the overall time-planning network is proposed. It is shown how changes in the individual time plans and the time plan of the entire working process can be accomplished by making changes in the networks.
Illustration of how the use of a relative cost handbook will assist the value -trained designer in evaluating his efforts, using relative cost as a design parameter. It is said that with this handbook the designer will be able to make "rule-of-thumb" cost comparisons for design alternatives which provide the equivalent functions. These costs are not used to measure the efficiency of the shop, but are developed as a means for measuring the cost-effective ness of a function or design.
(Author) A. B. K.
It is stated, however, that the PMD approach to a network is unlike that of PERT. The PMD uses activities as the basic units of a schedule, rather than the time of occurrence of events as in PERT. The use of this approach leads to the discovery of the fact that a scheduling system could be logically derived with capabilities not found in existing PERT systems. The capabilities that exist in the current model of the PMD are listed. It is pointed out that, because of these added capabilities, the PMD is particularly suitable for research and development projects where a knowledge of all activities necessary to the development of a product may not be available or known at the start of the project.
Review of some typical modern management tools in the light of increasing competition. Although it is felt that the use of electronic data processing equipment (EDP) can be overdone, it is believed that, when wisely used, EDP can be of tremendous help in enabling management to fulfill its responsibilities and to make good decisions. Many areas where EDP has been used to advantage are reviewed, including processes used for planning, marketing, maintenance, inventory, finance, personnel, and on-line systems such as automatic reservations, teletype switching, etc. Although the examples represent modern airline management techniques, they are also usable by many other industries. Other tools reviewed include a system of customer service measurements to provide management with indices of the quality of the services it is giving to its customers and an extensive management development program to build an efficient team of managers and supervisors. Where rapidly growing techniques such as critical Path and PERT can be used, these are also reviewed.
Discussion of the extension of PERT and critical path-planning models for the analysis of cost-time tradeoffs and resource allocation. Various scheduling algorithms with and without resource constraints are noted and compared, as reported in the literature. Key assumptions and some practical limitations are analyzed. Recommendations for further research are offered. It is concluded that, in complex projects where more than one efficient duration can be specified for an activity given a constant level of technical performance, and where reasonably good estimates of duration can be made, a network model for analysis of the efficiency and capacity problems ought to serve a useful role in management planning.
Description of the application of the PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) to the management of the Air Force C-141A Starlifter Program. Air Force and Lockheed management personnel used PERT from the proposal stage through the delivery of the hardware to "flag" and isolate problem areas. The manner in which the PERT was implemented and used, enabling the C-141A to be completed and flown on schedule, is discussed.
Application of PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) to modest engineering tasks and projects. It is reported that PERT techniques for planning and control, involving graphic methods and network analysis to depict and analyze a project, can be applied either formally or informally to large and small projects alike. The networking technique is said to be applicable primarily to the "oncethrough" type of effort typically associated with the development of a system or subsystem. Topics covered include: what PERT is and is not, defining the job, network planning, time estimating, scheduling. day-to-day control, task plan vs project plan, PERT/COST estimating, and the use of computers.
Description of a management technique to monitor and control research tasks as to cost and scheduled objectives. An input-output technique used for all projects, hardware, development, study, and research is described, and a typical input-output performance chart is presented. The function of a planner is outlined, whose questioning, monitoring, analyses, and evaluations pinpoint problems and coordinate the actions of the technical and support team. Methods of long-range planning are discussed and illustrated briefly by the development of the Bomber Advanced System. A typical program plan is presented, as is a bid and proposal committee form.
Development of certain general ideas with reference to special artifacts for securing extensions for constrained optimization models, for certain problems of system design. Ways are considered in which optimizations (extremal principles) might be used for purposes such as generating "equivalences" to do the following: (1) obtaining suitable measures for assessing the performance of a system, and (2) guiding and controlling certain kinds of simulation for system design purposes. The discussion is centered about examples in management planning where these measures are used for evaluating design proposals. It is stated that various artifacts make it possible also to utilize constrained extremization models for systems wherein optimization per se is not an issue. Such models may also be used in aciditional ways when, for instance, further evaluations are wanted to guide additional alterations in a system by reference to by-product information induced by an optimization principle.
Description of the PERT Project Monitoring Device using the basic networking system of PERT for representation of a schedule.
Description of PRESS (Project Review, Evaluation, and Scheduling System), a critical-path technique of project analysis and review. Projects are considered to be made up of jobs (activities) and results (events). A network is drawn up consisting of a series of events, represented by large circles, which are connected by numbered arrows, representing the individual activities. A basic assumption is that an activity has a definite beginning event and a definite ending event. Several activities can originate from the
Conversely, one activity may be preceded by several activities. In the determination of the time values for the network calculations, it is assumed that the time to complete any given job or activity is a variable. The pattern of this time variation may be a normal distribution, one that is skewed left or right, or one that is uniform or spiked. These distributions can be approximated by estimating three time values for each activity: expedited time Txi the shortest practical time in which an activity can be completed; normal time In, the most likely time it would take to complete the activity, or the time that would be allotted if only one estimate is required; and pessimistic time Tp. the time it would take to complete the activity is almost everything went wrong. The three estimates are used in conjunction with a nomograph to determine the expected time te, the statistical mean or average value of the three estimated times. (It represents the average time that the activity would take if it were repeated many times.) A project with six activities is followed step-by-step to demonstrate the calculations for a critical path network. The network calculations, performed manually (without the aid of a computer) and adaptable to projects ranging from $1000 to over $500, 000, indicate not only the critical path of the project, but also the amount of slack time or float in each branch of the network.
Discussion of a program management method, developed by the Navy and designated PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique), which provides faster information flow, more accurate appraisal of progress, and tighter management control. The method is based on a dependency diagram or symbolic representation of a program of action which depicts all significant events involved. The itemized activity list and a typical PERT network diagram illustrating interrelationships between activities required in the manufacture and testing of a unit of electronic equipment are presented. The effectiveness of the method is evaluated.
Presentation of the principles of the Program Evaluation and Review Task (PERT) method and its application in the resolution of problems of delays, costs, and investments which arise during the performance of all contract tasks. The simulator consists essentially of equipment which can be adjusted in such a way that the relations between physical quantities, which it puts into play (in the regions of hydraulics, optics, mechanics, or electricity) can be related as closely as possible to numerical values characterizing those economic phenomena which are to be studied. Examples are given of how the equipment can be applied to solution of problems arising during a program which involve such factors as reductions in price from the workshops or from subcontractors, cost reductions which involve shorter delay periods, and on what financial conditions such shorter delays could be obtained.
F. R. L.
Presentation of the results of an application of basic management principles to the Airborne Long Range Input (ALRI) test program. The testing involved system integration of airborne electronic sensor and communication equipment with ground electronic data processing and computation equipment. The management of the test program coordinated the efforts of approximately ten industrial subcontractors to comply with requirements and procedures of the Air Force. The methods used to keep all personnel informed of the activities at the site, at the home office, and at the management meetings with the Air Force are discussed. Some of the techniques appear to be simple and obvious, but precisely because of this, they are usually overlooked. Experience has shown that the implementation of these techniques is effective in preventing troublesome situations. Other techniques discussed include the methods of data documentation, the maintenance of administrative records, which are generally regarded as an unnecessary evil and, hence, injudiciously avoided, and the arrangement of schedules to obtain maximum performance and minimal disruption of testing. A listing is provided of those techniques that were considered important in the hope that they will be of use to system managers looking forward to a similar test program.
Investigation of the role of the government in fostering the use of network scheduling and control techniques. Specifically, an analysis is made of the volume, quality, and content of the publications through which information on critical path scheduling techniques, primarily PERT, is made available. The results of this analysis indicate that significant government publications on critical path scheduling did not emerge until two years after its development,
Presentation of the results of a mathematical analysis of the standard assumptions used in PERT calculations. The objectives of this analysis were four-fold: (1) to pull together the mathematical aspects of the PERT model, (2) to suggest relevant analytic techniques, (3) to obtain an indication of the magnitude and direction of errors introduced by the assumptions, and (4) to suggest possible modifications and improvements in the model. Analyzed first are those assumptions which are relevant to the individual activities. Three possible sources of error are considered here: (1) the beta distribution assumption, (2) the standard deviation assumption and the approximation formula for the mean, and (3) the imprecise time estimates. Then, the PERT network as a whole is considered and
the calculations underlying the project mean, standard deviation, and probability statements are analyzed. The concept of relative criticalness is explored for the PERT stochastic model. Techniques for network reduction are outlined.
to produce each unit of production. The history of these curves in the airframe industry is reviewed. Modifications of the basic functions are examined. Seven major uses of progress curves by the aerospace industry are in (1) cost estimates, (2) scheduling, (3) efficiency comparisons, (4) procurement and subcontracting, (5) facilities planning. (6) personnel planning, and (7) long-range planning. An evaluation is made of current usage.
A64-14705 PROJECT COST CONTROL AT RAYTHEON'S WAY LAND LABORATORY E. L. Williams and G. A. Wilson (Raytheon Co., Surface Radar and Navigation Operation, Equipment Div., Wayland, Mass.). IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, vol. EM-10, Sept. 1963, p. 138-149.
Description of the development and implementation of the Project Cost Control system, to assist those who wish to install such a system in their organizations. Included in the discussion are: (1) the definitions of responsibility and authority required to make the system work; (2) the roles and interrelationships of the controller, line management, and project management; (3) the requirement for, and methods of, dividing projects into manageable pieces both in terms of size and of time; (4) the paperwork required for documentation of data inputs and outputs; and (5) the interpretation of reports in terms of project, organization, and individual performance.
Discussion of management control and monitoring techniques in terms of policy determination and operation philosophy. Application of these techniques is a self-imposed discipline that extends to all activities in the Engineering Department in a uniform manner and ensures proper "control awareness" by engineers and engineering supervision. A significant feature of the technique is the ready availability of data on performance of time, cost, and technical accomplishments on a recurring basis for all programs.
Application of a network flow model to the problem of choosing the best pattern of training and retraining activities, undertaken to insure that properly trained personnel are available when and where needed at minimum cost. The nodes of the flow model represent individual specialties in specific time periods, and the links represent all potential training and retraining flows (and all nontraining flows and intraspecialty movement as well). By using one node for each specialty in each time period, a dynamic flow is simulated by a static network. The problem emphasized is the maximization of the achievement of requirements. The solution yields the set of flows over nontraining, training, and retraining links which maximizes the aggregate value of the network, the set of flows which results in the best match of expected available manpower to projected requirements.
General discussion of the advantages of Program Evaluation and Technical Review (PERT) as a valid management technique in the Dyna-Soar program.
Description of a simple, direct, and flexible system of associating costs with program milestones. This system, the PERT milestone system, provides a basis for summarization of PERT schedule data for various levels of management, from the deta il components through the weapon system levels. The concept of the system is described along with its application,
Presentation of the results of a Monte Carlo simulation of PERT networks. The concept of using Monte Carlo methods to give solu tions to PERT problems under less restrictive assumptions is dis cussed. Results are given for the accuracy obtainable, for the computing time required and devices for reducing computation are developed. A "criticality" index is defined for each activity. This index is simply the probability that the activity will be on the critical path. The ramifications and uses of this parameter, which is not available using current techniques, are developed.
M5 PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT
Study of the development and use of the progress function by aerospace companies. The progress function is a predictive model developed by the airframe industry in the 1930's. It is also called the "improvement curve" or the "learning curve." It reflects the relationship between gross production output and the effect required
Investigation of the impact of microelectronics on maintenance personnel and on training and organizational requirements. Microelectronic functional equivalents are defined for two operational systems: (1) a ship's inertial navigation system, and (2) a torpedo guidance system. The maintenance personnel and the training and organizational requirements of the microelectronic and existing configurations are compared by means of maintenance-burden analyses. It is found that microelectronics reduce the amount of ma intenance required by the ship's inertial navigation system by 84% and the amount required by the torpedo guidance system by 18%, under existing maintenance philosophies.
in large industrial complexes to aerospace organizations is discussed, and the introduction of integrated information systems into aerospace companies is considered. Problems which arise in project and production management are reviewed. The need for the development of new techniques in the aerospace management field is emphasized in a discussion, and the use of critical path analysis is discussed.
Discussion of the group dynamics approach that encompasses long-range personnel planning and use of the group as participants and contributors to the evolving system as a means of improving the effectiveness of studies and the utilization of the developed system. Resistance to change is examined as an aspect of the environment that confronts the planning, conversion, and management of automatic data-processing systems. It is emphasized that personal attitudes of line and staff personnel that result from fear of job dislocation or loss, as well as of understanding of unit or organization mission objectives, can seriously affect the results of the feasibility study and cause overdevelopment or underdevelopment of systems design.
Analysis of the scope and scale of a proper Project Initiation Study with particular emphasis on the market, the product (design, cost, and timing), and the resources to market the product. Public relations techniques applicable to an advanced technological product are described, and techniques for cost estimation and cost effectiveness studies at the project initiation stage are treated. Timing strategies for the introduction of an advanced technological product are mentioned, and pricing policies and techniques applicable to advanced technological products are studied.
Discussion of the methodologies which must be mastered and actively applied in system deve lopment programs to reduce the incidence of human error and, consequently, increase the reliability of human performance in system performance. Tables show the following: (1) summary of factors to be considered in allocating functional decisions requirements to equipment and personnel, (2) summary of progressive methodological approaches in system development, and their significance for human error prediction, and ( 3) summary of general orientation toward system management by government procuring agencies and their engineering contractors, and requirements to implement an overall change of viewpoints by 1975.
Review of the growth of the "systems approach" in an attempt to predict its future development and its possible application to complex problems of the future. The systems approach may be thought of as the systematic investigation of the research, engineering, and management activities applicable to the utilization of any complex combination of elements for technological or sociological gain. The 1930 to 1950 period is described as an era in which the sy stems approach was primarily applied to the development cycle. As the application of these techniques grew, it was found that they encompassed both the area of development and applied research; the present period is described as the "research era." A case study for the potential utilization of an orbital research laboratory is presented to illustrate the application of the systems approach in determining research and development objectives and relating these to the benefits to be derived. The extrapolation of these activities to the future indicates that the ability to conduct applied research will exceed economic capability, and therefore, the systems approach must be applied to the sociological as well as the technological disciplines.
M6 URBAN MANAGEMENT
No abstracts in this issue
M7 MANAGEMENT POLICY & PHILOSOPHY
Discussion of management methods which are applicable to the aerospace industry. The application of mathematical methods used
Discussion of the basic and unique problems of management in aerospace/defense firms. The relationship between aerospace companies and their chief customer, the U.S. government, is discussed in terms of the nature of contracts, governmental financing, profit control, and governmental incentives and (unintentional) disincentives for good company management.