forecast. Then, in 1974, the projected fraction jumped up to 34 percent, even though Census results which became available during that period indicated a current public transportation usage rate of only half that amount. Furthermore, the Washington area has had a decline in public transport patronage since 19701 so that Census patronage figures are high relative to today's experience. While it is reasonable to expect METRO rail to boost public transport patronage somewhat, it is also reasonable to expect the trend toward increased automobile usage to continue. Looking at other metropolitan areas which have rail rapid transit systems will help to give a rough idea of realistic rates of public transport patronage. Table 7 shows the percentage of work trips using public transportation for all five U. S. cities which had rail transit systems in 1970. With the exception of New York City, which has a uniquely extensive rail network as well as exceptionally expensive auto commuting costs, the other transit cities show a pattern of transit use for work trips between 14 and 22 percent. - Against this background, the recent WMATA projection indicating that 34 percent of workers will use public transport in 1990 appears unrealistic and unsupportable. If metropolitan areas of comparable size cannot approach such a ridership today, it is extremely unlikely that Washington a relatively dispersed metropolitan area for its population size will achieve it in 1990 when automobile ownership and use are apt to be higher than today's and when urban sprawl may have advanced still farther. A more realistic work trip transit usage figure would appear to be 20 percent or less. On this basis, a more likely forecast of METRO work travel would be 59 percent, or less, of the level projected by WMATA. Non-Work Trips There is a relatively strong incentive for workers to use public transport to get to their jobs. Auto congestion is at its peak during commuting hours and 1WMATA and the District of Columbia Government, "Draft Final Application for an Urban Mass Transportation Administration Capital Assistance Grant," July 25, 1975, p. B5. a computed from 1970 Census ignoring trips classified as "walked to work," "worked at home," and "other means (including taxicab)." These categories were ignored so that results would be comparable to W MATA figures. average parking costs are higher for work trips due to the central location of workplaces and to the lengthy duration of parking space occupancy which work travel involves. Non-work trips do not, in general, face similar travel characteristics. Travel of this sort is varied in terms of its timing, duration, purpose, and special requirements. Correspondingly, non-work trips are less transit-oriented and more difficult to categorize. They are also more difficult to estimate since, unlike work trips which are monitored by the Census, there is no comparable, nationwide measurement of non-work trips. However, a large number of cities have conducted surveys of non-work trips taken by their public transport patrons and examined, among other things, the reasons such trips are taken. Some of these results are shown in Table 8. These figures indicate that transit operations typically serve a work-triporiented market. Even 15 years ago, work trips accounted for about 65 percent of overall transit patronage. Washington had one of the more work-triporiented public transportation systems with 67.9 percent of its transit travel being between home and work. This trend seems to typify the experience of the new transit systems as well. For instance, about 65 percent of the BART system patrons were going to and from work, and patronage on the Lindenwold Line in the Philadelphia region consists of 86 percent work travel.2 WMATA forecasts, by contrast, show that work trips will comprise only 56 percent of METRO's ridership. The volume of non-work travel which this estimate represents appears to be unrealistically high in the light of experience in other areas. It implies that each work trip would be matched by .80 non-work trips instead of .54 (or less) as implied by patronage profiles elsewhere. The number of non-work trips forcast by WMATA would thus be almost 50 percent too high, even if WMATA's projected number of work trips were But given that the number of work trips forecast by METRO appears to be high itself, a likely number of non-work trips would fall beneath .4 of the number forecast by WMATA. accurate. 3 1San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District, 1975 Passenger Profile Survey. 2Delaware River Port Authority, Engineering Planning Division, 1970 Lindenwold Line Passenger Survey. The result presented is based on the six outer stations. Comparable data were not available for the inner stations. .80.54 = 1.48. 65-714 O 76-6 TABLE 8. COMPOSITION OF TRANSIT TRAVEL IN SELECTED CITIES: 1950-1960 Source: Computed from data in Wilbur Smith and Associates, Public transportation patronage has generally been falling in the U.S. since shortly after World War II. The slight increase in 1973 patronage probably resulted from shifts created by the Arab Oil Embargo. While the upward trend continued into 1974, it is possible that it stemmed as much from system improvements and subsidies as from gasoline price increases. In any case, 1975 public transportation figures, when they become available, are expected to fall well under 1970 levels in absolute terms. Since population has grown by about 5 percent since 1970, there seems little doubt that the 1970 per capita rates of public transport usage presented elsewhere in this section are higher than current experience, even allowing for the effect of higher gasoline prices. Correspondingly, it is not felt that experience following the recent increases in gasoline prices requires any revision of the general conclusion that WMATA patronage forecasts are unrealistically high, especially when viewed alongside available evidence from other metropolitan areas with rail transit systems. Total METRO Rail Travel While any patronage forecast involves considerable uncertainties, the evidence reviewed here tends to suggest that work trips will probably be less than 59 percent of the level forecast by WMATA, and that non-work trips will probably be less than 40 percent of the level forecast. Together these imply that, at a maximum, total patronage will amount to only 51 percent of the WMATA forecast. The last three WMATA Net Income Analyses have indicated that by 1990 the annual patronage on the rail system will approach, or reach, 300 million. About 182 million of these patrons will also use bus for part of their trips and another 167 million public transport patrons will use buses exclusively. It can be seen from Table 10 that these ridership estimates are quite likely greatly |