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product prices are estimated by making a

is used to forecast the following variables, which are

variety of assumptions about future changes

subsequently treated as inputs to the FDA octroleum model:

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others, the world price of cruce, the existence

(2)

per soral consumtion expenditures (1958

of import fecs, the tute at

we stic

dollar', Spuscrally-au dat arrual rates):

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Other

(a)

Natural gas curtailments are assumed throughout

the entire forecast interval. On a yearly average basis, it is assumed that incremental gas curtailments will

boost residual demand by 80 thousand barrels per day and

will boost distillate demand by 113 thousand barrels per

day.

(b)

Since Bureau of Mines (BOM) demand data is

currently available only through August 1975, the demand

model solves from September 1975 through December 1978. Since quarterly BOM supply data is available only through

the second quarter of 1975, the supply model solves from

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