APPENDIX II OVERVIEW OF THE SHORT-TERM PETROLEUM FORECASTING PROCEDURE (1) The procedure by which FEA's short-term petroleum (2) U.S. economy. Petroleum Second price trajectories are estimated for FEA's short-term petroleum demand model is driven The DRI macroeconomic model is a large-scale (2) persoral consumption expenditures (1958 dollars, seasorally-ad Jited at arnual rates); Other (a) Natural gas curtailments are assumed throughout the entire forecast interval. On a yearly average basis, it is assumed that incremental gas curtailments will boost residual demand by 80 thousand barrels per day and will boost distillate demand by 113 thousand barrels per day. (b) Since Bureau of Mines (BOM) demand data is currently available only through August 1975, the demand model solves from September 1975 through December 1978. Since quarterly BOM supply data is available only through the second quarter of 1975, the supply model solves from July 1975 through December 1978. vi |