REVIEW OF THE DRY GOODS TRADE OF NEW-YORK,

FOR THE YEAR 1904.

THE year 1904 has been one of great difficulty for the manufacturers of textiles, and trade in the distributing branches has been quite as unsatisfactory, if not more so, than during the preceding twelve months. Unlike 1903, however, which began with a fair degree of promise and ended with affairs at their worst, the past year opened as badly as the previous one closed, and gradually worked its way to an outlook that is comparatively bright. High prices for raw materials without proportionate advances in the price of goods has again proved the principal disturbing element, added to which have been unusual curtailment of manufacture, due principally to labor troubles, and the regular trade disturbance that exists in a Presidential election year. Of the three the last was by far the least important. During the early months the cotton market remained in the firm grip of speculators, and prices were advanced irrespective of conditions in the cotton goods industry. Thus, while cotton was forced in February to over 17c., the goods market was never above a 12c. basis. Mills were unable to procure their raw material at figures that made manufacturing profitable, and in many instances preferred to shut down rather than continue working at a loss. When the collapse in the cotton market came, which finally resulted in 74c. cotton during the closing month of the year, those mills that had cotton on hand found themselves loaded up with material that they could only dispose of at a loss. Unable to maintain the rate of wages that they had been paying, a reduction of 124 per cent. was decided upon. The operatives rebelled and a strike was inaugurated at Fall River in July that continued without interruption to the end of the year. The immediate result of this was not apparently so serious as might have been expected owing to the restriction of consumption, but it had the effect of causing retailers to draw upon their stocks to such an extent that at the close of the year they have reached an extremely low level. In the woolen goods industry, manufacturers succeeded towards the end of the year in advancing prices to something near the parity of the raw material which has throughout been maintained at unusually high figures and which shows small prospects of any immediate decline. They have had to contend, however, with great difficulty in obtaining the supplies necessary to keep their machinery working and have failed to secure the full advantage from higher prices which they might have done had they insisted upon these earlier. The silk manufacturing industry has expanded considerably and, in spite of the regularity with which looms have been run, there has been little, if any, over

production. The difficulties experienced by the cotton mills of the North have resulted in somewhat greater activity in the South where mill-building has again been extensive. Altogether some 900,000 spindles have been added in the South during the year, against but 50,000 in the North.

Cotton Goods. While the export demand for cotton goods has on the whole been fair, the domestic demand has been very unsatisfactory and buyers have throughout pursued a hand-to-mouth policy. During the early months of the year, when cotton was advancing, buyers held off from the market and were only just beginning to extend their operations when the collapse intervened and effectually stopped the movement. The advance in cotton which

had taken place since the beginning of the year had only resulted in an increase of c. in the price of brown goods by the middle of February, and this proved to be the highest point that was touched in the twelve-months. With the collapse in cotton, buyers ceased all active operations and settled down to await developments. With few exceptions this attitude was maintained up to the end of the year, purchases being confined to those goods that they were in absolute need of. Under urgent pressure from buyers, and with a declining cotton market, prices were gradually reduced, until in the closing month they were at the lowest point, which was c. below the opening prices. Had it not been for the scarcity of stocks in first hands, due to the curtailment of manufacture, it is probable that the reductions would have been greater, for the demand was of very limited proportions. As it was, the decline was not commensurate with that of cotton, but with the market continually declining, manufacturers have not been able to reap much advantage from the situation. Bleached goods have fluctuated irregularly, advancing at one time c. over the opening figures, and finally closing at the lowest point of the year, which was from c. to 1c. below the opening. Low grades have been relatively weaker, in spite of the scarcity of supplies. Manufacturers of the leading lines of bleached muslins and cambrics were able, by careful handling of their output, to protect themselves fairly well. Stocks of coarse colored cottons have been kept low, and while business has not been large, fluctuations have not been wide. The opening price of the year proved to be the highest, and the lowest price, which was that at the close, showed a reduction from this of from 2 to 34c. Heavy napped cottons, such as canton flannels and cotton blankets have averaged about 15 per cent. lower during the closing months of the year. Cotton linings have been comparatively slow, staples, such as kid finished cambrics and silesias, being dull.

Export Trade in Cotton Goods.-In spite of the war in the Far East, which shut off the whole of Manchuria to American trade, the sales of cotton goods to China during the last eight months of the year were in excess of those of any previous whole year and went some way towards relieving the distress of manufacturers and

rendering them more independent towards the home buyer. It is difficult to calculate the exact amount of goods that has been purchased in this direction, owing to the number of orders that have been placed for delivery as far ahead as July, 1905. A feature of the market has been the demand for light weight goods, which business was formerly entirely in the hands of British manufacturers. Flannels have also sold in larger quantities than for some years. Chinese buyers have had to pay full prices for their goods, but as long as they have been able to secure the particular lines that they have required, they have raised few objections. Large sales of cotton goods have also been made to Japan and the Philippines, including fair sized quantities of duck for the use of the Japanese army. The bulk of the Philippine trade has been in prints. Sales to India and the Red Sea have fallen off on account of the stocks held by those markets and the high prices prevailing throughout the year. In the later months, however, the Red Sea business showed signs of improvement. Australia has been a moderate purchaser, but the South American business has shown no improvement. The strained relations between the United States and Colombia over the Panama incident shut off a certain amount of business in that direction, and unfortunate speculations in cotton by Brazil merchants restricted the buying power of these. Sales to Hayti and Venezuela have been well up to the average, and there has been an increase in the yarn and bag trade to Argentina. South African business has not developed in the way that had been anticipated.

The following shows the course of domestic prices during the year for a few leading makes of staple cotton goods and wool flannels:

Print Cloths.-On January 1 print cloths were on the basis of 34c. for regulars, (28 inch, 64 x 64,) and during the month, on a small volume of business, advanced a further c. to 4c. By February 2 they had reached 4c., which proved to be the highest point of the year. From that time forward, with a declining cotton market, they were gradually reduced, until early in July they stood at 3c. On limited sales they were again advanced

during July to 3c., at which figure they were when the Fall River strike was inaugurated. No better evidence of the quiet conditions existing during the remainder of the year can be found than in the fact that, with a curtailment of approximately 250,000 pieces of print cloth weekly for six months, the course of the market, with few exceptions, was downward, until at the end of the year, with the strike still in progress, the price stood at 23c. Southern mills were, to a certain extent, able to take advantage of the situation, and it was, in part, the competition from this source that caused the decline during the latter half of the year. Seven Fall River corporations were unable to pay dividends during the year; in no cases were higher dividends paid than in the preceding year, and, in most instances, the dividends that were paid were from surplus and not from earnings.

Prints and Printed Dress Goods.-Printers in all lines of calicoes, staples and fancies, have had a difficult year to contend with in many ways, and the net result has been far from satisfactory. The Fall River strike greatly increased the difficulty of securing print cloths, and, while some of this business has gone to Southern mills, the output in all lines has been greatly reduced. Early in the year distributers laid in fairly large stocks of goods at high prices, and later found that they could only dispose of these at figures which greatly reduced the year's profits. Efforts to keep both staple and fancy prints at prices that would prove remunerative failed from the outset, and, throughout the year, there has been a general cleaning up of stocks in preference to making new commitments. In this way supplies all over the country were reduced to a minimum by the end of the year, and the market has therefore been placed in a better position for the future. Owing to the reduced consumption, and the drawing upon surplus stocks, the smaller production has not been felt as much as it might have been, and, by carefully regulating their output, printers have kept their losses as low as possible. Further progress has been made during the year in winning foreign markets, but the business in this direction is not yet sufficient to offset the smallness of the home demand. Fine printing specialties have enjoyed a better year than other lines. Printed organdies, mulls and soft goods of this character have been taken fairly well, and have been shown in good variety. A certain degree of success has attended mercerized fabrics, and a feature of the year has been the introducing of these effects into the lighter weight goods. Printed napped goods, or printed flannelettes, have been in fair demand, and comparatively higher prices have been secured for these than for printed calicoes. In spite of this, however, the margin of profit has been small.

Ginghams and Woven Fabrics.-Buyers of ginghams contracted fairly heavily for goods during the early part of the year at prices. which it was afterwards found were above what could be obtained for them, and while manufacturers were able to reap some benefit

from this distributers were forced to suffer. This early condition affected the whole of the year's trading, and production, after the initial orders had been filled, was materially reduced. During the remainder of the year there was a general drawing upon stocks, which, at the end, were closely cleared up. There has been active competition between Southern and Northern mills throughout for the spot business that has been transacted, and prices have been irregular with only a small margin of profit possible. Fine grades of fancy or dress ginghams have been in continued small supply owing to the curtailment of manufacture and the difficulty experienced in securing the services of expert weavers. In nearly all lines cancellations have been fairly numerous, and buyers have shown a desire to be released from their contracts. Staple goods have been considered safer than fancies, both the jobbing trade and waist manufacturers preferring these. The most favorable feature of the market at the end of the year is that manufacturers have worked very close to orders, and should, therefore, be able to dispose of their product during the coming year at a profit. The new lines of woven patterned fabrics other than ginghams were opened somewhat late, but buyers displayed an absolute lack of confidence in the market situation and purchases were confined to the smallest possible limits, with the result that the initial business was very small. On the other hand re-orders were rather more numerous, but were confined to small lots and to goods that were required at once. White goods in plain and fancy weaves proved the most popular, and purchases of colored Madras and Oxfords were small. Towards the end of the year the prices on many lines were reduced, and manufacturers were glad to get rid of their surplus goods even at a loss. Cotton dress plaids have been quiet, with a small demand throughout. Napped woven patterned goods have been in rather better request, but were steadily reduced in price.

Hosiery and Underwear.-The cotton hosiery manufacturers have had to face during the year similar conditions to those which existed during the previous twelve months, owing to the high price of raw material, and the results have been equally unfortunate. So accustomed had they become to a cotton level of below ten cents that they had apparently neither the knowledge nor the organization to cope with other conditions. Added to their troubles in the way of obtaining raw material at reasonable cost has been a system of price cutting that has been disastrous to most. A few Southern mills claim to have done fairly well, but this is by no means general. Those manufacturers who had fair sized orders booked for the spring found that they were forced to pay abnormal prices for their raw material, which necessitated greater advances on all duplicate and re-order business than could be obtained to make manufacturing profitable. On fall goods the same difficulties were apparent, for, although the price of cotton had fallen in the meantime, it was still far above the parity at which goods could be sold. Business throughout the year has thus been conducted with