페이지 이미지
PDF
ePub
[blocks in formation]

! Estimates based on incomplete data.

Gross receipts less appropriations to the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and refunds of receipts. • Individual income taxes and estate and gift taxes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.

national income accounts. The percentage was 10.0 percent the year before; in the first half of 1950, it was 8.4 percent. Although the proportion of total personal income left after payments of direct taxes declined during this period, the dollar amount moved steadily upward.

Corporate taxes became relatively more important as a source of Federal revenue in 1952. They accounted for 33.4 percent of budget receipts last year, compared with 25 percent in 1950. This shift is the combined result of the tax legislation, including the imposition of the excess profits tax in 1950, and the response of corporate profits to changes in general business activity. Federal corporate tax liabilities, as distinguished from corporate tax payments, were 56 percent of profits before tax in 1952; in 1949, when the pre-Korea rates applied, they were 38 percent.

Table 8. Government cash receipts from and payments to the public

[blocks in formation]

Cash receipts ?
Cash payments ?

State and local cash surplus or deficit (-).

18.4
19. 4

19. 7
20.7

20.9 22. 4

-1.0

-1.0

-1.5

1 Estimates based on incomplete data. : Federal grants-in-aid have been deducted from State and local government receipts and payments since they are included in Federal payments.

NOTE.-Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department, Department of Commerce, and Council of Economic Advisers. (See

appendix tables A-5 and B-33.)

State and local finances. Cash payments by State and local governments have exceeded cash receipts by a small margin in each year since 1948. (See chart 18.) The excess of payments is estimated at 1.5 billion dollars in 1952, compared to 1.0 billion in 1951. These data are given in table 8.

Revenues have more than kept pace with the rise in operating expenses in recent years, but increasing amounts have been required for capital outlays by State and local governments. Expenditures for new construction, primarily highways and public schools, were 6.6 billion dollars in 1952.

Outstanding debt of these governments amounted to 29.6 billion dollars on June 30, 1952, having increased by 2.6 billion during the previous 12 months. Because of the relatively low interest rates of the past decade, the annual interest on this debt was no higher in 1952 than in 1942, even though the amount of State and local government debt outstanding rose by about 50 percent in this period.

Public debt operations. In addition to a net increase during 1952 of 3.3 billion dollars in special issues for U. S. Government investment accounts, the volume of new borrowing by the Treasury from the public was considerably larger than in other postwar years. (See appendix table B–31.) Some of the new financing was used to repay holders of issues that were redeemed and of that portion of matured issues which was not exchanged for other Government obligations; some was used to augment the General Fund balance, which rose by 1.8 billion dollars during the year, and some of it went to meet the cash deficit of the second half of 1952. The combined effect of sales to the investment accounts and to outsider buyers was to increase the total public debt to 267 billion dollars at the end of 1952. This represented an increase of 8 billion dollars for the calendar year, compared with an increase of 2.7 billion in 1951.

New marketable securities offered to the public were short- or mediumterm maturities. Several increases in the weekly offerings of 3-month Treasury bills lifted the outstanding volume from an average of 15.6 billion dollars in January 1952 to 17.2 billion in December. In June, the Treasury accepted bids in the amount of 4.2 billion dollars for a heavily oversubscribed issue of 236 percent 6-year bonds, and in October and November it sold two series of tax anticipation bills, totaling 4.5 billion, one to mature in March 1953 and the other the following June.

Securities of the last-named kind are useful in meeting the problem arising from the unequal seasonal flow of Treasury receipts, which generally run much higher in the first half of the calendar year than in the second half. This imbalance has been accentuated by the plan under which an increasingly large percent of corporate taxes on the earnings of the preceding year must be paid in March and June.

As for nonmarketable securities, which with few exceptions may be purchased only by investors other than banks, the Treasury offered in May, partly for cash subscription, long-term nonmarketable bonds of the series first issued in the spring of 1951. In May and June, furthermore, extensive changes were made in the types and terms of U. S. savings bonds with the intention of making them more attractive to the individual investors, for whom they are especially designed.

There was, after some easing early in 1952, an upward trend in yields on short-term Government securities. This became quite pronounced in the closing months, the average yield on new issues of 3-month Treasury bills being 1.92 percent in the fourth quarter of 1952 compared with 1.65 percent a year earlier. (See appendix table B–32.) International developments

United States exports. United States total merchandise exports dropped sharply during the middle of 1952, and in the second half were below the rate of both preceding half years. (See appendix table B-43.) Exports of United States goods, excluding Department of Defense shipments financed by the Mutual Security Program, declined even more sharply than total exports. (See chart 20.) From a monthly average of about 1.2 billion dollars both in the second half of 1951 and in the first half of 1952, domestic exports, exclusive of military aid items, declined to a monthly average of about 1 billion dollars. This drop of nearly 17 percent was almost entirely one of quantity, with export prices remaining practically unchanged. (See appendix table B-44.) Only exports of manufactured goods maintained their 1951 level in the second half of 1952; exports of crude foodstuffs and raw materials declined sharply. Geographically, the decline was widespread, but commodity exports to Western Europe, the sterling area, Argentina, and Brazil suffered the largest decreases. (See appendix tables B-41 and B-43.)

The drop in the volume of United States exports in the second half of 1952 is traceable to a variety of factors. Among the most important was the decline in United States commodity imports between March and September 1951, to a level more than 25 percent below the peak reached briefly in the first quarter. From the fourth quarter of 1951 to the third quarter of 1952, imports fluctuated on a level moderately above the 1951 low. The resultant decline in the dollar earnings of foreign countries, occurring as it did while their expenditures in the United States remained at record heights, contributed to an eventual drop in United States exports. The export surplus of the United States in the second half of 1951, only partially counterbalanced by foreign aid, caused some foreign countries to lose gold to this country and to draw more heavily on their dollar holdings.

In its Midyear 1952 Review, the Council described the developments abroad which had accounted for the size of our export surplus and the imposition by other countries during the period since mid-1950 of increased import restrictions and anti-inflationary policies. Briefly, the payments balances of many industrialized countries, especially in Western Europe, had de

[ocr errors]

teriorated because of rapid accumulation of inventories of imported goods after June 1950, and a lag in the rise of their export prices relative to import prices. At later dates, many raw material producing countries also suffered balance of payments problems when the declining rate of inventory accumulation in the United States caused their exports to fall, while their imports, swollen because of high internal incomes and demand, remained high. In late 1951 and early in 1952, the United Kingdom, many other members of the sterling area, France, and certain South American countries imposed sharp important restrictions and adopted anti-inflationary policies to correct balance of payments deficits and to stop losses of reserves.

The decline in the gold and dollar reserves of the sterling area, which had started in mid-1951, was halted after the first quarter of 1952. By the fourth quarter of 1952, the area as a whole was carning gold and dollars from the European Payments Union which approximately balanced its deficit with the dollar area. The improvement in the international position of the sterling area in the second half of the past year resulted from the previously imposed import restrictions, the decision in many instances to draw on existing stocks of imported commodities, and restraint on internal demand by credit and fiscal policies.

From a high of 730 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 1951, United States exports (exclusive of "special category items") to the sterling area declined to 313 million in the third quarter of 1952. This drop of nearly 60 percent may, of course, have involved some seasonal factors. United States exports to the United Kingdom alone declined from 299 million dollars to 117 million. The improvement in the United Kingdom's balance of payments occurred despite a decline in total United Kingdom exports, reflecting import restrictions imposed by the rest of the sterling area and other countries. Exports by the United Kingdom to the United States, however, were as high in the second and third quarters of 1952 as they had been in the first half of 1951.

United States exports to other Western European countries together similarly declined from a seasonal high of nearly 900 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 1951 to about 500 million in the third quarter of 1952, a drop of about 45 percent. Exports to continental Western Europe, like exports to the United Kingdom and the entire sterling area, fell off sharply in the second half of 1952, because of increased import restrictions imposed by certain countries; because of increased availability of certain commodities, especially agricultural goods and coal, from domestic and nondollar sources; because of the existence of sizable stocks of imported goods in many countries; and because of a lower level of demand for consumers' goods, especially textiles. This last development was the foreign counterpart to the softness in certain consumer goods industries in this country.

United States commodity exports to countries in the Western Hemisphere in the aggregate remained at about their 1951 level during the

CHART 20

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

After mid-1952, the U. S. merchandise export surplus fell sharply. The increasing volume of shipments of grant-aid military equipment failed to offset the drop in the volume of other exports. Merchandise imports averaged somewhat lower than during the first half of the year.

[blocks in formation]

JJ A S O N DJF M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N D
1950
1951

1952

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE SHIPMENTS OF GRANT - AID MILITARY EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES UNDER THE MUTUAL
SECURITY PROGRAM, SHIPMENTS PRIOR TO AUGUST 1950 AMOUNTED TO 47 BILLION DOLLARS.

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND

DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

first 9 months of 1952, although higher exports to Canada were counterbalanced by lower sales to certain Latin American countries. Especially sharp was the drop in exports to Chile and Argentina, where high internal demand supported by inflation had led to a loss of reserves and the necessity for curtailing imports.

In 1952, for the first time since 1945, industrial production in Western Europe failed to rise above the previous year, as chart 21 indicates. The failure of industrial output to rise was not all loss; the breathing spell in this rapid advance was accompanied by significant gains. It appears that the reaction to the post-Korean buying spree has about completed its course, thus permitting a continuation of post-World War II economic growth on a more stable foundation. The year 1952 represents a period of consolidation and internal industrial adjustments, in contrast to the rapid expansion which characterized the earlier phases of the post-Korean boom. The inflation suffered by many Western European countries after

« 이전계속 »