Consumption. United States. Great Britain.... Total..... 1851. It is now ascertained that this consumption of 4,000,000 of bales of cotton has actually taken place, and the manufacturers have never been so constantly engaged in filling orders, without their stocks of manufactured goods being permitted to accumulate as is now, and has been the case for the past year. The consumption has been largely greater than the outside estimates of manufacturers. With a crop in the U. S. exceeding greatly any we have ever gathered, and with advancing prices in the spring, bringing forward every bale that was made to market-together amounting to 3,015,000-we see that this enormous supply has not only been absolutely consumed, but at least 100,000 bales of the stocks on hand at the first of the year have been also. The stocks of cotton in Europe on the 1st January, 1853, will be swelled at least 100,000 bls., by that quantity more than usual having been shipped and received there of the crop of 1852 -an item which in this connection is of great importance, and must be remembered. Now, what are the prospects of consumption for 1853? The question is one of magnitude, but with the data before us, is susceptible of demonstration. Gratulating themselves, they state, that the improvements recently introduced into the hosiery manufacturer's machinery, does work which, costing two years ago 1s. 6d. (say 33c.), is now done for 2d. or 334c. Such is the condition and prospect in Great Britain. What is its condition on the continent? In the figures above, you see, for 1851 it was 956,000 bales. For this year it is estimated by English writers that it will be 1,350,000 bales, which is about 42 per cent. increase. This increase is enormous, but as I have always remarked in my circulars, the increase there is distined to be in a very great and constant ratio. In the enormous population of Germany, Italy, France, &c., the consumption is merely in its bud-I remarked in my circular of Nov. 18, 1851, "the consumption of the present year will be largely over that of any other in Great Britain, France, and on the continent, and the rapidity of its increase in Russia, Germany and the south of Europe, is highly encouraging. I may properly observe, then, that important as is the consumption of cotton in France and Germany, their peasantry have been, and are still relying on flax and hemp for a large proportion of their coarse clothes. Did the 35,000,000 of France, and the 70,000,000 of Germany consume cotton in the ratio that the population of the United States, Great Britain and In United States Consumption-Crop of 1852. 287 dia does, the crop of the United States, are diminished 37,000 bales; and we furif doubled, would not supply their de- ther find that the stocks in the interior mand." Well, the consumption in towns, on the 1st Sept., were next to France, Germany and the rest of Europe, will increase in a ratio fully corresponding with our ability to supply them, and this must continue, from the fact that the cotton goods can be afforded cheaper than flax or hemp goods; the land which produces the hemp will, planted in potatoes or wheat, yield a more profitable crop, and the latter are raised with much less labor and expense. nothing, and that, instead of a considerable quantity being held back in the gin houses and on the plantations, as usual, the prices which cotton advanced to in the spring brought every bale forward into last year's receipts, and which are estimated, in the aggregate, to have been from 300,000 to 250,000 bales. While this quantity went to swell the receipts of last year, it will be borne in mind that the supply of cotton for this year loses it, and we must deduct, from the otherwise probable receipts of this year, that quantity. We now pass to that of the U. States. The consumption of the past as compared with the former years is extraordinary, being, as you perceive, about 50 What of our crop? After the extraorper cent. increase - we may properly dinary one of last year, and its excess inquire into the cause of this difference, over any one's calculations, I feel some and consider if it is likely to continue to reluctance in touching on it. I will simincrease. I gave, in my circular before ply say it is confessedly good-over an alluded to, reasons for the falling off of average crop. The receipts of the last five so much, apparently from the preceding years were, for 1851-2, 3,015,000; 1850-1, year, which was, that the constant and 2,355,000; 1849-50, 2,097,000; 1848-9, heavy exports of specie then going on had 2,729,000; 1847-8, 2,348,000=12,544,000; alarmed the Northern banks, as they held or, an average of 2,509,000 bales per ancomparatively no specie, causing them num. The average of the preceding to withhold their accustomed and essen- five years was 2,137,000 bales, and the tial accommodations. When the imports increase per cent. per annum of the latof California gold became uniform and es- ter over the former period is 3 per cent. tablished, and they were satisfied that the at which rate per cent. on the average imports of gold would be greater than the exports, they relaxed and extended not only their usual but increased facilities to the manufacturing as well as other interests; hence the increased manufacture. But shall it be continued? When we regard the important emigration which has been annually flowing into the country, as well as our own naturally and rapidly increasing population, that the entire country, especially west and south, are all in the highest degree prosperous, we must conIclude that our own home trade must every year be augmented, with the increase of the country. In conclusion of this branch, it is plain to us of the South, that our consumption of cotton goods is very rapidly enlarging, and our manufacturers are fully engaged and steadily increasing their power and spindles. I anticipate further regular advance in this branch of the nation's enterprise, and that the consumption of 1853 will be progressive. We now turn to THE CROP OR SUPPLY.-Small as were the stocks remaining in our ports, 1st September, 1851, we find this year they would give a crop this year of 2,600,000 Receipts and crop of last year 3,015,000 265,000 .2,750,000 With "the lights before me," I am doubtful if the crop of this year exceed that figure. Were we governed alone by the receipts to this time at our ports, compared with last year's to the same time, this view would be palpably and at once contradicted, I confess; but what are the circumstances attending the receipts of the two years? They are these: that last year the waters tributary to NewOrleans, save the Mississippi itself, were unnavigable until in February; so unusually late did they continue down, that many of the most opulent firms there suspended payment. Our rivers also were late getting up. This year the waters tributary to New-Orleans have been up, from the time cotton was ready to be shipped; and as prices were favorable, every boat has been put into requisition to expedite the cotton to market, and the article has been sold, by the by, as it arrived. Our principal river, and from which about one half of our receipts are derived, has also been up; and with freight at $1 a bale, and full prices generally prevailing for cotton, it has come forward with unusual rapidity, and it has also been sold. But with reference to the crop on this river, the Alabama, what do we now see? As I said in my opening, the boats from that river are coming in with loads, like those of the months of May and Juneand they have reduced the freights to stimulate the shipments. But leaving these comparisons, I will briefly submit my estimates for the probable receipts at each point for this year. No old cotton to come in from the interior of Georgia and South Carolina, and their crops not quite so good as last year. I put the receipts of the 750,000 170,000 480,000 .1,250,000 100,000 .2,750,000 Above I have given the consumption of 1852, which was, bales, 4,000,000; showing the supply of 1853, inclusive of the entire stocks in Europe and America, will be less than the consumption actually is and has been of 1852,-59,000. This view may be questioned, as the results are arrived at by estimates of crops and estimates of consumption, but I will defend them under the proper head of cents, PRICES. Our views of prices are dependent on the extent of consumption and the crops or supply of cotton. I have above shown what the probable supply for 1853 would be, and with the entire stocks of cotton on hand in Europe and America, it will be less than the consumption of 1852 has been. Were the crops, I admit, fully ascertained today, to not exceed my figures, the price of middling cotton would be 12 with all the concurring favorable causes to place them at that. I think 2,750,000 bales will be the extent,-but let us admit for a moment that, independent of the lessened quantity to come to market this year, in consequence of the country being entirely stripped last year of cotton, the receipts will go to 3,000,000 bales. Well, so much the better for us; but will 3,000,000 bales weaken our position materially as to prices? The consumption we put down for Europe is the late published estimate of English papers, confirmed by circular statistics to the last dates-that of the United States has been authoritatively footed up. It may be contended, the manufacturers hold more stock than they are accustomed to. No one will contend they hold as much in proportion to the con sumption as they held last year. Our prices current show that, on the 27th November, 100,000 bales were cleared for Europe since 1st September, more 91,000 than had been to the same time last year, and this will be received in Europe and be counted in the stock, which, with this, will not exceed the quantity I put down, viz: 500,000 bales. I say if the crop should be 250,000 bales more than The frost was late or I would not put it so high. And considering the occurrence of very wet and bad weather for gathering of late, especially in Mississippi and Louisiana, this appears to me a very full, and fair estimate. Worms, rot and storms have injured the crop this year, else I admit it would have been larger. Contending with these enemies it is a heavy one if it reaches 2,750,000, and as I have sometimes over-estimated, I must insert here, I would not be surprised if the crop falls below this. The supply from other countries, imported into Europe, we may put down the same as last year, and we may thus view the result. Probable Repudiation by England of Abolitionism. my estimate is, then there would be the extravagant stock in Europe and America of 191,000 bales on 1st Jan. 1854. To quibble about this matter will be ridiculous, as in any intelligent view it is presented, it is very transparent that the tendency to increased consumption for 1853, must be checked by an insufficient supply. What are our grounds support ing the conclusion, that the consumption of 1853 would be greater than 1552, were it not checked by this insufficiency of the raw material? 289 Can there be a question for a moment of what will be the effect of this accession of the precious metals upon the price of a naterial of this nature? A material which cannot be supplied at any price, in a ratio commensurate with its consumption-and in the face of those multiplied accessions of gold from year to year, I consider, in the present position of all the great interests which are connected with cotton, that its consumption would not be checked at all, if prices for this crop were to go to 12 cents, and that prices will advance this year and continue good, I have no doubt. Permit me to say, in explanation of my allusion to abolitionism, what I consider to be the position now of the slavery question. Seeing the vigilant and constant inquiry the British Government is making as to the effects of emancipation in the South American and West India Colonies, and of slavery as it exists, and observing the pulsations of the English people respecting it, I am with other reasons conducted to this conclusion. Its enunciation may surprise manynay, all; but I venture the assertion that it will be so: First, the peace of the world and the total absence of any exciting political questions any where. As, for example, the late decision by Parliament to maintain in Great Britain unrestricted trade, lops off all suspense there. Again, the establishment of the empire of France by unsurpassed unanimity, confirms not only the progress of prosperity and quiet in France, but secures it in all Europe. Further, the nomination by the Southern Rights Party of this country of Gen. Pierce for the office of President, and his unexampled majorities in the South, which, contrary to the apprehensions of some of his friends South, were quite as fully maintained in the North, having That is, that the English Government been elected with the dissenting voices will openly and practically repudiate of only four states, give confidence and the false position they took and now ocencouragement to the people of this cupy in reference to it. A glance at the country, that the fanatics of the North influence which effected emancipation are stripped of their poison, and that the in the English West Indies, and which admonition of Mr. Winthrop in Con- has been outlived by time and experigress, that the South should prepare for ence, will detain us for a moment. The emancipation, was the struggling and East India Company, anticipating the flickering twilight of abolition. The value of the productions of the West establishment and confirmation of re- Indies and the Isthmus, for the preservapose among the people of the South tion of their very distant possessions in produced by this election, I regard of the East, resolved on emancipation in momentous influence at the present time the English West Indies. They promulon the question of prices for our staple. gated arguments, that emancipation, The fine harvests of Great Britain and while it would cause an additional dethe continent-the superabundance of mand for the labor of the white, would money-the universally prosperous and at the same time increase the producprogressive spirit of trade-concur to sup- tions of the country by the application port prices. But we have only one more point we need to add. Besides the quantities of gold received in this country and Europe from California and Australia, produced there previous to 1st August last, it is estimated, by competent authorities, that the gold of California will reach, in the 12 months, from 1st August, $100,000,000; of Australia, for the same time, $200,000,000-making, for the 12 months, from the 1st of August last, $300,000,000. of this intelligent labor, and that the trade of the mother country would be benefited, as the whites would consume more than the blacks; that the productions, being augmented in quantity, would be furnished to the mother country much lower than as it was; and that the treatment of slaves was horrible; and for miscellaneous and promiscuous reasons, emancipation ought to take place. The people of England have already experienced that all these arguments were false. And the pressure' of the cotton savage race, and place them in a posi question will cause them ere long to declare the trade in negroes to be as free and unrestricted as the trade now is in anything else. Will they consent, in this enlightened age, that the very Eden of America shall shed its uncultivated fruits in desert wilds? Assuredly, as suredly, not! They will themselves say, that it will be as wise, as humane, to reclaim from the wilds of Africa its tion to benefit themselves and the great family of man. There is an apathy on the subject of slavery elsewhere than amongst a portion of the English and a portion of the people of the North. However, with the opposition to it, in England removed, the trade will be reopened-and her citizens will largely and fully participate in it, in all its ramifications. ART. XI.-COMMERCIAL PROGRESS. COMMERCE OF NEW-YORK-IMMIGRATION INTO NEW-YORK, 1849-1852-BRITISH COMMERCEBRITISH AND AMERICAN TRADE COMPARED-LOSSES ON THE LAKES, LAKE TRADE, ETC. COMMERCE OF NEW-YORK.-The NewYork papers of January the first, contain an immense mass of statistical information in regard to the commerce and trade of that city, from which we make the subjoined abstract, and will hereafter give the full statistics. The total imports for 1852 amounted to $129,849,619, showing a decline of $1,511,959 on the imports of the previous year. The amount of specie imported was $2,408,225, against $2,049,543 in 1851, and $16,127,939 in 1850. The greatest excess of importations is on dry goods -it being over three millions of dollars. The total import of dry goods for the year, was $61,654,144, against 62,846,731 for 1851. The import of woolen goods for 1852 was over sixteen millions of dollars; of cotton goods over eleven millions; of silk goods twenty-two millions; of flax goods seven millions. The Journal of Commerce, from which we glean the above facts, has also the following table showing the values of some of the leading items of imports for the last year: The total exports for the year were $71,523,609, of which $25.096,255 were in specie! The total exports of 1851 amounted to $87,653,849, of which $43,743,209 were in specie!! From this it will be seen that the excess of specie exported last year was $18,640,954, and that the shipments of both years were greatly to the advantage of foreign manufacturers. The Journal of Commerce, commenting on these facts, says: It will be seen that the falling off is altogether in specie, and that exclusive of this item, the exports have increased $2,517,714, although they are less than the very large amount reached in 1850. We annex a summary of the exports of specie and merchandise for three years: 5,249,640 1852.. 2,711,236 1851. 3,005,862 1850..... 1,645,356 Total. .$25,096,255....$46,427,354. .$71,523,609 43,743,209.... 43,910,640... 87,653,849 9,982,948.... 50,136,300... 60,119,248 .... 1,923,929 The specie exported is as much do955,880 mestic produce, as wheat or corn, and 3,580,838 if more of it had been shipped, our home 1,083,554 market would be in a more healthy con8,926,690 dition. In this connection, we present 6,398,104 703,387 a comparison of the quantity of some of 3,045,320 the leading articles of produce shipped 2,183,047 from this port for the last two years, the total value of which is included above under the head of merchandise. The revenue from cash duties received at that port, show that a larger pro The |