done in this country in order to build up a coördinated banking, warehousing, trading, and speculating center, a center to which both buyers and sellers would be attracted because it would offer to them the advantages of a continuous market. It was the existence of such a continuous market in London, in Hamburg, and in some of the other European seaports which permitted them before the war to maintain their reëxport trade; and unless the signs are deceptive, London is going to regain rapidly its former position as the greatest merchandising center in the world. However, American importers and exporters are not likely to do as much indirect trading as they did before. One of the important changes brought about by the war was our establishment of direct connections with many markets of China, Japan, India, South Africa, South America, and Australia. Rubber, wool, tin, etc., which used to come to us via Europe, come now directly across the Pacific; they land at Seattle, San Francisco, and other Pacific ports, or they pass through the Panama Canal or around Cape Horn and are unloaded in New York or some other Atlantic harbor. Two illustrations will suffice to show the recent development: As may be seen by comparing the figures for 1918 and 1919, Great Britain is striving to reëstablish herself as an intermediary. That she is meeting with at least a partial success may be inferred from a study of our foreign trade by customs districts. The imports rose in the Pacific Coast district from $138,149,000 in 1914 to $617,099,000 in 1918, but a marked drop from this high level occurred in 1919, the value of imports having declined to $493,147,000; in 1918, 20.95 per cent of our imports came via the Pacific Coast; in 1919, only 15.92 per cent. It is not intended to discuss in this paper the problems which have arisen because of the fact that the United States has changed from a debtor to a creditor nation. While one may not agree Total $347,597 $490,937 $1,696,637 $2,977,135 $2,102,421 $1,686,338 But war conditions played also an important rôle in stimulating the exports not only of these but also of many articles which ordinarily represent peace commerce and certain amounts of which would have been shipped from here to Europe in the regular course of events. The value of the exports of wheat, wheat flour, rye, oats, barley, bacon, ham, lard, canned and fresh beef, condensed and evaporated milk, and refined sugar, most of which went to Europe, rose as follows: Thus exports of war material and essential foodstuffs went up 7 A clear, well documented exposé of the past, present, and probable future The direction of our exports and imports before and after the outbreak of hostilities in Europe, shows as clearly as the character of the commodities moved the influence of the war upon our commerce during the past six years. The changes from 1910 to 1914 and from 1914 to 1919 were as follows: 8 Those who have been viewing our recent foreign commerce not as a pathological case, but as a normal conquest of markets, a healthy, though somewhat accelerated development, may well consult the statistics of our production during the past few years. They will learn that in 1918 when war demands were at their highest and we were doing our utmost to meet these demands, our production was only 13 per cent in excess of that in 1913. In 1919 when war requirements ceased to be a factor our output of commodities declined from that of the previous year; the produc tion in 1919 was only 8 per cent greater than in 1913. Such an increase cannot be considered as a real growth, especially in view of the fact that during the same period the amount of money in circulation in our country rose from $3,390,000,000 to $5,709,000,000 or 68 per cent and the amount of bank deposits from $12,678,000,000 to $25,731,000,000 or 103 per cent. It is clear that increased exports from the United States were not the result of a fuller, a more intelligent, utilization of our resources and our capacities, that these increased exports were not representing a real surplus which we were sending to foreign buyers in exchange for their products and services. 8 For a comprehensive list of graphs and tables illustrating the shift in the direction of our commerce from 1912 to 1918 see The Annals of the American Academy for Political and Social Science, May, 1919, pp. 106-114. In the past five years the excess of our exports over imports was $13,963,976,000. This astonishingly large "favorable" balance of trade was the result of an artificial violent cause. It was largely due to the urgent demands of people who were frantically seeking goods and were willing to pay any price for them. The unparalleled exports from this country to war and famine stricken Europe, exports financed not by means of mercantile credits but by long-term loans advanced by our government, represent a phenomenon of a purely transitory nature. As to the markets outside of Europe, they will belong to those who can produce most efficiently and who by means of effective systematic efforts will be able to create a desire for their goods. University of Illinois. SIMON LITMAN. REVIEWS AND NEW BOOKS General Works, Theory and Its History Introduction to Economics. By JOHN ROSCOE TURNER. (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons. 1919. Pp. xvi, 641. $2.50.) As the title implies, this is a general introductory textbook. It is intended for college classes, and is devoted mainly to the theoretical aspects of economics. The author does not pretend, he explains in his preface, to offer a complete and exhaustive discussion of the entire field, but presents an introduction only, intended to prepare the student for intelligent thinking in connection with "the more advanced and specialized works on the subject and the practical applications they reveal." He aims also to avoid controversial entanglements and to restrict himself for the most part in both content and terminology to points of view and usages for which sufficient precedent can be found. The author's aims are on the whole well carried out. In textbook technique the book proceeds upon more or less conventional lines. It introduces chapter summaries in the table of contents, with bold-face section headings in the body of each chapter, and supplies a set of exercises at the close of the chapter which require the student to do his own thinking in the application or use of the principles developed in it. In matters of theory Turner's point of view is throughout essentially that made familiar by Fetter. Departures from the latter's position are to be found, however, notably at two points: one in the introduction of the alternative ("opportunity") cost analysis in the theory of value, the other in a decidedly extreme conclusion drawn from the identification of land and capital. For the most part controversy is avoided, though opposing views are sometimes presented in very brief form, in order to make clearer the author's own position. In his value theory Turner follows in his discussion of the demand side of the market the usual marginal utility analysis, substituting, however, the term desirability. He departs from the more usual presentation of this theory when discussing the supply side, in that, as already noted, he introduces the alternative cost analysis made familiar by Davenport. The alternative cost theory is presented only in this connection, however, and is not carried further. |