NEW HOUSING STARTS PROJECTIONS 1960-1970 UNITED STATES (Continued)

Note: Projected starts for 1960-1970 should not be interpreted as a function solely of population change, or inventory change as presented here. They are derived from variables mentioned in text, including the population and inventory used. Therefore, projected starts cannot be derived by simply deducting 1950 inventory from 1960, or comparing this to percentage change in population for the next decade. Total projected starts were adjusted for units changed by conversions, mergers, demolitions, and other losses--and as a result (assuming at least the same rates for the next decade as 1950-1960 rate) total starts will have to be higher than net change in inventory. In other words, in order to get a net increase of 100,000 units, new starts would have to be higher, by the number of units lost through demolition and other means.

1/- Research Division, National Education Association, Population Projections 1960-1970 2/- U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1950 and 1960 Census

3/ Estimates by NAHB Economics Department

APPENDIX

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

The attached table shows the total resident population of states, April 1, 1960 and projections, July 1, 1970. These are unofficial figures prepared by the Bureau of the Census at the request and expense of the National Education Association. This is not an official Census report and figures are not to be attributed to the Bureau of the Census. The figures include members of the Armed Forces stationed in each state and exclude members of the Armed Forces abroad. Each projection has been rounded to the nearest thousand from figures computed to the last digit: hence the sums of the parts may differ slightly from the totals shown.

In line with its usual procedures of preparing alternative series of projections, the Bureau of the Census has, in this case, prepared four series. The projections differ in the level of birth rates assumed for the nation as a whole and in the pattern assumed for interstate migration. All series make the same assumptions as to the national level of death rates and immigration and as to the ratio of state birth rates, death rates, and percentage age distribution to the corresponding figures for the nation as a whole. The different assumptions as to the national birth rate and interstate migration in the four sets of projections are as follows:

Assumption II-1 (a) Assumed births at the 1955-57 average fertility level (gross reproduction rate 1.79). This is the approximate birth rate level for 1960 and the average for the 1958-60 period. (b) The amount of net migration during each 5-year period 1960-65 and 1965-70 will equal the amount which occurred in 1955-60.

Assumption II-2 (a) Assumed births at the 1955-57 average fertility level (gross reproduction rate 1.79). This is the approximate birth rate level for 1960 and the average for the 1958-60 period. (b) The amount of net migration during each 5-year period 1960-65 and 1965-70 will equal one-half the amount which occurred in the 1950-60 period.

Assumption III-1 (a) Assumed fertility will decline from the 1955-57 level to the 1949-51 level (gross reproduction rate 1.54) by the 1965-70 period. (b) The amount of net migration during each 5-year period 1960-65 and 1965-70 will equal the amount which occurred in 1955-60.

(b) The

Assumption III-2 (a) Assumed fertility will decline from the 1955-57 level to the 1949-51 level (gross reproduction rate 1.54) by the 1965-70 period. amount of net migration during each 5-year period 1960-65 and 1965-70 will equal one-half the amount which occurred in the 1950-60 period.

The attached tables are based on assumption II-2 which appears most reasonable to the National Education Association at the present time. When these figures are used the source should be identified as material from Financing Education in the 1960's, Special Project on School Finance, Research Division, NEA.

HOUSING PROJECTIONS

The year built data from 1960 Census, housing starts, and permit data were analyzed together to derive the estimate of non-permit building. Permits for each state were adjusted using each state estimated rate of non-permit data, to derive the starts' estimates. Individual state rates for demolition, conversions and mergers have been proportionately adjusted for the total estimate of a higher rate of losses for the U. S. as a whole. This also includes an estimated net addition of vacancy rate.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS N. H. ROGG-DIRECTOR OF ECONOMICS AND POLICY PLANNING MICHAEL SUMICHRAST-ASSISTANT ECONOMICS DIRECTOR NORMAN FARQUHAR-ECONOMIC ANALYST

Special Report 63-2

May 13, 1963

GROWTH TRENDS IN MAJOR HOUSING MARKET REGIONS

URBAN REGION CONCEPT... A new concept of urbanism has been defined by
Urban Land Institute's Research Director, Jerome P. Mckard.

According to Picard, urban regions are the "newest form of urbanism in America--emerging surely in the twentieth century as great cities emerged in the nineteenth century. Our largest urban region, sometimes called 'megalopolis,' extends along the Northern Atlantic Seaboard from Portland, Maine, to Washington, D. C. A popular misconception has led to calling this a 'city 500 miles long'. It most definitely is not a single city, but a region of concentrated urbanism-a continuous zone of metropolises, cities, towns and ex-urban settlement within which one is never far from a city."

The real significance of this new concept is its setting forth of the growth pattern of the next two decades. Cities will merge, creating clusters of urban areas; large urban regions will merge into even larger ones. In addition, many new ones will emerge, by 1980 there will be 25 urban regions with 170 million population. If the population projections come true, this would mean an increase during the next two decades about 50% greater than in the period 1940-1960.

An indication of the magnitude of this trend is a reported emergence of three giant urban regions, with some 115 million people.

As for the home building industry, two important conclusions can be reached from the projected growth.

The first deals with the projected pattern of growth; by 1980 75% of all housing activity will be concentrated in 21 of the urban regions with a possible 80% of all housing units built in 26 urbanized areas. The second conclusion is a corollary of the first one. As a result of this clustering process, the present problem of suitable land in and around the cities presumably will be intensified, systems of transportation will have to be adjusted, we will have to face the problems of utility expansion-all of which may mean a move toward higher density housing in one form or another.

As mentioned in Special Report 63-1, "New Housing Starts Projections 1960-1970," housing estimates should be used primarily for planning purposes. They were developed by the NAHB Economics Department on a preliminary basis, and will be refined in the future as new information becomes available. We therefore urge caution in using these data. No attempt should be made to relate them to any local market projections--they should serve primarily as a guide in planning housing activity.

TABLE 2

CHARACTERISTICS, GROWTH RATES AND PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS OF URBAN REGIONS