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ECONOMIC

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Special Report

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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS N. H. ROGG-DIRECTOR OF ECONOMICS AND POLICY PLANNING MICHAEL SUMICHRAST-ASSISTANT ECONOMICS DIRECTOR NORMAN FAROUHAR-ECONOMIC ANALYST

June 4, 1963

Special Report 63-3

HOUS ING STARTS FOR STATES. 1959-1962

STATE DATA FREQUENTLY SOUGHT W. BUT IS A SOURCE ITEM ... State data on housing starts is in constant demand--from all types of users, and for a wide variety of purposes. Despite the demand, technical difficulties have prevented the satisfactory development of such data by either official government, or private sources, For a few years, during the mid-1950's, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provided estimates for a list of selected states. For a number of easons,

the series was discontinued.

In recent years, those needing state estimates have been forced to rely
primarily on building permit data. However, comparisons of state permit data
with year-built data from the 1960 Census vary widely and reaffirm doubts
that permit totals reflect the probable level of construction volume.
This is mainly due to an absence of permit systems in many areas (mostly non-
metropolitan) and possibly also to lax enforcement in some areas where permits
are technically required.

In California, Maryland, and Hawaii, for example, the permit levels
appear to fairly represent the levels of new construction, On the other hand,
some states had apparent construction levels as much as three, four, and five
times the reported level of permits.

MAIN USES ... For precise market analysis requirements, these estimates
should be regarded as unsatisfactory. However, for such purposes as estimating
the impact of home building on a state's economy, the estimates should provide
a satisfactory working basis. Likewise, for builders, manufacturers, distrib-
utors, and other contemplating multi-state activity, they should provide a
more reasonable basis for making comparisons of the relative level of building
activity among various states--more reasonable, that is, than data heretofore
available. Likewise, for firms already engaged in multi-state activity, they
provide a reasonable basis for grouping states into special purpose regions.
By the same token, the data can be used to advantage by national firms in
dividing up sales territories, establishing sales quotas, establishing distri-
bution points, establishing and evaluating inventory controls, etc. While
they fall far short of desirable çeliability, they would nonetheless seem
superior to the "best guesses" on which many important decisions have necessarily
been based in the past.

*

A NOTE ON METHOD "Year-built data" from the 1960 Census was
adjusted to official census estimates of total housing starts for the 1959-
1960 period--assuming a consistent state-by-state percentage of overstatement
on the number of housing units recently built. (for the benchmark period).

This permitted estimates of starts levels for each state which could be used with state permit data to derive an adjustment factor. Adjustment factors are then applied to state permit levels for each of the years estimated.

FUTURE REFINEMENTS

... A number of refinements in this data are both possible and desirable--and these will be developed as time permits. In particular, it is desirable to differentiate between sale housing and rental housing--or between one-family and multi-family housing. This distinction would be important for many users. Also, because the adjustment factors were derived from totals, there are undoubtedly some biases in the starts estimates for states which have a low rate of permit coverage in combination with recent major shifts in the mix of multiple housing. This is because the major discrepancies between permits and actual construction occur largely in one-family home structures--the dominant type in non-metropolitan areas without building permit systems.

TOTAL PRIVATE NON-FARM HOUSING STASTS BY STATES
(Preliminary Working Estimates by NAHB Economics Dept.

Derived from Building Permit Data)?

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Idaho ..

1959 State

Starts Alabama

32,700 Alaska

2,600 Arizona

26,700 Arkansas.

14,200 California

230,600 Colorado .

19,100 Connecticut

18,600 Delaware .

4,700 District of Columbia

1,600 Florida

109,700 Georgia

37,800 Hawaii

10,300

6,200 Illinois

68,000 Indiana

28,900 Iowa

14,000 Kansas,

15,000 Kentucky

20,400 Louisiana,

32,200 Maine .

4,900 Maryland.

28, 200 Massachusetts

23,800 Michigan

50,900 Minnesota

22,700 Mississippi

17,800 Missouri

35,200 Montana

5,400 Nebraska

9,100 Nevada

5,300 New Hampshire

3,400 New Jersey

46,400 New Mexico

12,700 New York

100,600 North Carolina.

37,700 North Dakota,

5,000 Ohio

69,600 Oklahoma

19,800 Oregon.

14,400 Pennsylvania.

52,000 Rhode Island,

3,500 South Carolina

20,400 South Dakota.

4,100 Tennessee.

30,000 Texas

103,700 Utah

9,500 Vermont

1,600 Virginia

34,600 Washington

26,600 West Virginia

1,700 Wisconsin,

24,900 Wyoming

3,400 Isee discussion of estimating procedure

1960 Starts 20,600

3,100 23,400 15,600 188,700 19,800 15,400 6,400 2,800 81,500 33,500 9,100 4,800 59,900 22,400 10, 700 11,000 16,500 21,200

4,300 21,500 22,600 37,700 21,400 23,600 23,100 5,800 9,400 7,700 2,500 40,800

7,600 88,900 33,600

2,900 58,800 16,700 14,000 48,000

3,900 14,000

2,800 24,500 75,700 7,000 1,000 27,800 17,000

5,700 20,400 3,100

Starts
21,900

2,700
21,200
14,300
201,200
26,100
14,600
6.100
2,500
73,900
32,900
6,600
4.800
55,800
24,000

9,900 11,000 15,000 20,300

4,000 28,400 24,900 35,800 22,200 19,900 23,600

5,000 10,200 10,900

3,500 42,800

6,600 105,800 39,300

2,600 51,600 18,100 13,600 45,000

3,600 12,800

3,300 23,700 86,800 8,200 1,300 29,500 19,100

4.800 16,800 2,200

Starts 23,300

4,600 21,700 22,000 252,000 22,500 16,000 5,600 3,800 70, 200 39,800 8,800 5,000 54,300 24,900

9,700 11,600 18,400 22,800

3,500 34,900 26,600 39,300 25,900 19,200 24, 200

4,200 11,200 26,200

2,400 41,900

7,900 111,900 35,100

3,000 58,900 23,100 14,700 50,000

4,000 14,700

2,600 22,100 108,400

9,000 1,100 39,500 25,100

4,700 16,000 2,600

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Special Report

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS IN H. ROGG-DIRECTOR OF ECONOMICS AND POLICY PLANNING I MICHAEL SUMICHRAST-ASSISTANT ECONOMICS DIRECTOR

NORMAN FAROUHAR--ECONOMIC ANALYST

Special Report 63-6

July 12, 1963

THE RENTAL HOUSING BOOM OF THE 1960'S

A Special Study

of
NAHB's Economics Department
analyzing the facts of the current boom,
its causes, some of the issues it raises,
and projecting the demand support for the

decade to 1970

Prepared by:
David K. Gillogly, Associate Director
with the collaboration of
Michael Sumichrast, Assistant Director

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