IN

PREFACE

N SPITE of the influence of Islam, which tends to level down national aspirations, Egypt, under the process of Regeneration, has awakened to consciousness as a nation. The creators of Modern Egypt, and the masterbuilder, Viscount Cromer, have founded their work of reform on Equality and Justice. The development of the Nile lands now enters on a phase of expansion inseparably associated with the fortunes of the British Empire.

The title given to this book sufficiently indicates its scope. Formerly, in the rampant days of Internationalism, there was a Question in Egypt as to her future destiny. That has now been answered-irrevocably-in the terms of British hegemony. But there remains a Problem, as to the means by which Egypt shall achieve her emancipation from International Control. It is a problem that may be dissociated from the direct issues of the Eastern Question, on which it impinges, because the political future of Egypt is no longer enshrouded in doubt. An inexorable law of History commits her to the protection of the leading maritime Power. events of the last few years confirm this as the natural solution of the Egyptian Problem. The prospects of the future herald it as the highest destiny for Egypt herself. Turkish suzerainty is a myth-a diplomatic fiction. International Control is now an anachronism—a tax upon freedom: blackmail, blood-money.

The

A physician's diagnosis springs from a searching analysis of the history of a case. I, too, have been compelled to traverse the paths by which Egypt has arrived at her present position of dependence on the Mistress of the Seas. Since physical factors influence or determine political issues and results, I have based my enquiry on the principles of Geography. Since the Nile Valley is under the domina

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tion of Great Britain, I have been constrained to examine the genesis and to outline the course of British Imperial Policy, in order to identify its aims with the development and expansion of Egypt.

Every factor of importance, every event of significance, and every document of consequence should be presented, and their bearing on the question at issue defined, in order to arrive at a true perception of the International Situation in Egypt. This evidence I have endeavoured to produce, in its entirety. Detailed deductions may, of course, in consequence of the complexity of the case, be open to adverse criticism : but accomplished facts speak for themselves, and confirm in a remarkable degree the verdict of History. Egypt must necessarily fall under the exclusive control of maritime primacy.

The heads of my argument are given in the annexed Table (No. 1), in a natural sequence of cause and effect. The divisions of my subject and the order of their presentation conform, in principle, to this arrangement of the material. Details are to some extent relegated to foot-notes.

From an examination of physical factors (Part I) I derive the organic unity of the Nile Valley. In Parts II to IV, inclusive, I produce the internal and external factors which, in their cumulative effect, point to its political unity under the Power holding the Command of the Sea and already exercising a de facto Protectorate. The Political Situation in Egypt (Part V) demonstrates the instability of Egyptian institutions; and an elaborate Survey of the Anglo-Egyptian Administration (Part VI), dealing with all the Departments of State, illustrates the extent to which these depend on British Control and initiative. International Interests are shown to predominate and centre in the Suez Canal (Part VII). And in Part VIII, I have sought the most natural solution of the Egyptian Problem. That the solution which I advocate is inevitable, may be gathered from the concluding Parts of my work (IX and X). In or before the year 1905, a British Protectorate, or its equivalent, must, in my opinion, be proclaimed throughout the Valley of the Nile.

During the two Winters (1896-1898) which I spent in Egypt, much of my time was occupied in examining the political situation, with which I was well acquainted in theory, and in collecting material for my work. The plan

of this book was laid down in 1897; and from that I have not found it necessary to diverge. Personal reasons precluded an earlier issue but the delay has had its advantages. I am now in a position to affirm what, two years ago, I ventured merely to predict. The reconquest of the Sudan and the establishment of an Anglo-Egyptian Condominium, being accomplished facts, have made all the difference in political speculations.

I am indebted to the courtesy of the Anglo-Egyptian officials, who supplied me with Government Reports and gave me the facilities usually accorded to accredited enquirers, but not in any degree to their co-operation. That is not expected of British officials, especially in Egypt. My views are not inspired, though they are commonly and avowedly shared, by those who are engaged in the work of reform. I do not, therefore, claim any official imprimatur. My cardinal source of inspiration was the luminous work of Sir Alfred Milner, England in Egypt, which serves as a Shorter Catechism for the Khedivial officials, and suffices as a point de départ for a competent observer. The Annual Reports of Lord Cromer1 and the Egyptian Government Reports have been my main sources of reference. These and other acknowledgments have been made in the text.

The only Egyptian official who took any material interest in my work was the enlightened Under-Secretary for Public Instruction, H. E. Yakub Artin Pasha, to whom I am indebted

1 Lord Cromer's Report for 1899 was received after my MS. was completed : but, in the revision, I have given effect to additional statistics, etc. My information is therefore up to date.

These admirable Reports by her Majesty's Agent and Consul-General, on the Finances, Administration, and Condition of Egypt, have been of the greatest service to me: and, in places where the authoritative views of Lord Cromer are specially pregnant, I have quoted them at length. The Reader will observe that, in my references, the date of these Reports is the year of their publication as Parliamentary Papers.