201

shillings 10

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373

know of no reason why I should not, indeed I think it under the estimate that the non-agricultural income has increased in the same ratio, the average income will be Rs.30 per head, as against Rs.27 in 1880. I do not say that these data are incontrovertible. There is an element of conjecture in them, but so there was in the figures of 1880. The uncertainty in both is precisely the same. If one set of figures is to be used in argument, equally may the other. Again, I do not claim that these calculations represent any very brilliant or gratifying result. We cannot be very happy in the face of the recent census which shows an increase of population so much less than we had anticipated, the falling-off of which is no doubt due in the main to the sufferings through which India has passed and which by so much reduces the denominator in our fraction. But at least these figures show that the movement is, for the present, distinctly in a forward and not in a retrograde direction; that there is more money, not less money, in the country; that the standard of living among the poorer classes is going up, not down; above all they suggest that our critics should at least hold their judgment in suspense before they pronounce with so much warmth either upon the failure of the Indian Government or upon the deepening poverty of the people. There is one point, however, in these calculations where we are upon very firm ground. In 1880 there were only 194 millions of acres under cultivation in India. There are now 217 millions, or an increase in virtually the same ratio as the increase in the population. This alone would tend to show that there can have been no diminution of the agricultural income per head of the people. The case, for instance, results from the increased standards of yield between 1880 and 1898. Perhaps the earlier estimates were too low. That I cannot say. The fact remains that in 1880 the figures showed a yield per acre of food crops in British India of 730 lbs. ; those of 1898 show a yield of 740 lbs. In some cases this will be due to improved cultivation; perhaps, more frequently, to extended irrigation. They are satisfactory so far as they go, for they show that the agricultural problem has not yet got the better of our rapidly increasing population, but they also show how dangerous it will be in the future if India, with this increase going on within, continues to rely mainly upon agriculture, and how important it is to develop our irrigational resources as the most efficient factor in the increase of agricultural production.

CONCLUDING Words.

I have now brought to a termination this review of the present position in India and of the policy and attitude of Government. I hope I have extenuated nothing, exaggerated nothing. I am a believer in taking the public into the confidence of the Government. The more they know the more we may rely upon their support. I might have added that the policy which I have sketched has been pursued at a time when we have had to contend with a violent

recrudescence of plague, and with a terrible, desolating, famine, but these facts are known to every one in this chamber. An allowance will be made by every fair-minded person for conditions so unfavourable to advance or prosperity in the administration. Should our troubles pass away I hope that in future years I may be able to fill in with brighter colours the picture which I have delineated to-day, and to point to the realisation of many of our projects which still remain untouched or unfulfilled.

With this authoritative statement before the student of Indian affairs the whole issue can be joined, and, it may be, ere the conflict ends, some advantage may be secured to the Indian subjects of the King of Britain from the unusual, but extremely proper, action taken by the Viceroy.

I follow the course of my reply to Lord Curzon, making such interpolations and additions as further research and criticism in the newspapers call for.

THE UNTRUSTWORTHINESS OF OFFICIAL FIGURES.

At Calcutta, on March 28th, Lord Curzon said :

'In 1880 there were only 194,000,000 acres under cultivation, there are now 217,000,000 acres under cultivation.'

He had pre

This shows an increase of 21,000,000 acres. viously stated: There is one point, however, in these calculations where we are on very firm ground.' This 'firm ground,' on investigation, becomes the reverse of firm. The Director-General of Statistics, in the Fourteenth Issue of the 'Agricultural Statistics of the Empire,' page 3, gives a summary of all the agricultural statistics from 1884-85 to 1897-98. The Famine Commission Report alone furnishes the figures for 1880. They are strangely at variance with those announced:

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or eleven millions and a quarter fewer acres than was stated! The Director-General gives a total 'area sown with crops' of 194,414,057 acres, but it is in relation to 1890-91, or ten years later, not 1880. The DirectorGeneral shows, for his latest year, 'Area under crops,' not 217,000,000 acres, but 196,497,232 acres ! Nearly twenty-one million acres difference, which, at the viceregal calculation of produce, means:—

21,000,000 acres x 740 lbs. of produce = 15,540,000,000 lbs. of grain, or food at the rate of 547 lbs. per annum for 26,000,000 people!

The Director-General's figures are the trustworthy figures. Apparently, therefore, the Viceroy has had invented for him a full food supply for twenty-six millions of people-a supply which has no existence save in some one's imagination. In the Director-General's details can be marked an annual rise and fall, corresponding with the seasons' fluctuations, which give them the stamp of veracity. For the eight years, 1890-91 to 1897-98, the first-named being the earliest year available for this comparison, as only then were the Bengal statistics included, they are as follow:

The above statements exactly correspond with the famine of 1891-92 (which was not recognised as a famine), and shows the three fairly good years of 1893 to 1895, with a high acreage, followed by the first of the

recent two famines which have caused great misery to vast multitudes.

If these figures be taken as the basis, and not the 217,000,000 acres the Viceroy mentioned, it may be well to press home their significance.

Since 1880 the area of the Empire has been enlarged by 105,000 square miles, or 67,200,000 additional acres. From these there have been added to the crop area the considerable acreage of Upper Burma of 3,167,133, all the additional land in British India irrigated (each acre of which should yield sixfold more than a like area of unirrigated land), with an increased population as follows:

Apparently, in British India, the increased area has not been more than ten millions of acres wherefrom to feed the additional forty millions of mouths, not counting Upper Burma, which have come in the meantime, claiming their portion. This means that the improved cultivation' which Lord Curzon thought 'in some cases' has been brought about, has been more than compensated for by decrease in other cases. Who, however, knows whether there really has been diminished fertility or an increased areal production? Not the Presidents of Famine Commissions or the compilers of official statistics. The moment one sets to work to endeavour to produce

1 Famine Commission Report, Part I., 1880, p. 3.