IMAGE : an integrated model to assess the greenhouse effect

1 General Introduction.- 1.1 The Problem.- 1.2 The Model.- 2 General Model description of IMAGE.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Description of the Various Module.- 2.3 Description of Scenarios.- 2.4 Model Deficiencies and Future Developments.- 2.5 Comparison with Other Models.- 2.6 Discussion.- 3 The Carbon Cycle Model.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Model Description.- 3.3 Emissions Module.- 3.4 Atmospheric Concentrations Module.- 3.5 Ocean Module.- 3.6 Terrestrial Biosphere Module.- 3.7 Deforestation Module.- 3.8 Validation and Uncertainty.- 3.9 Results.- 3.10 Conclusions.- 3.11 Appendix.- 4 The Methane Module.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Model Description.- 4.3 Emissions.- 4.4 Concentrations.- 4.5 Results.- 4.6 Conclusions.- 5 The N 2O Module.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 N2O Emissions Module.- 5.3 N2O Concentration Module.- 5.4 Results.- 5.5 Conclusions.- 6 The CFCs Module.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 CFCs Emissions Module.- 6.3 CFCs Concentrations Module.- 6.4 Results.- 6.5 Conclusions.- 7 The Climate Module.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 Model Description.- 7.3 Results.- 7.4 Conclusions.- 8 The Sea Level Rise Module.- 8.1 Basic Trend.- 8.2 Thermal Expansion.- 8.3 Glaciers and Small Ice Caps.- 8.4 Greenland Ice Cap.- 8.5 Antarctic Ice Cap.- 8.6 Uncertainties.- 8.7 Sea Level Rise Potential.- 8.8 Results.- 8.9 Conclusion.- 9 Socio-Economic Impact.- 9.1 Introduction.- 9.2 General Model Description.- 9.3 Quantification of Impacts for Various Sectors.- 9.4 Results.- 9.5 Conclusions.- 10 Policy Analysis.- 10.1 Introduction.- 10.2 Scenario Calculations.- 10.3 Low Climate Risk Scenario.- 10.4 Results.- 10.5 Delayed Response.- 10.6 Future Worlds.- 10.7 Conclusions.- 11 Temperature Increasing Potential.- 11.1 Introduction.- 11.2 Relation between Temperature and Emissions.- 11.3 Methodology.- 11.4 Results.-11.5 Conclusions.- 11.6 Appendix.- 12 Sensitivity Analysis.- 12.1 Introduction.- 12.2 Metamodelling.- 12.3 Experimental Design.- 12.4 A Metamodel for the Costs of Dike Raising.- 12.5 A Metamodel for the Ocean Module.- 12.6 A Terrestrial Biosphere Metamodel.- 12.7 General Conclusions.- 13 Discussion.- References.